Football · England National League · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Yeovil vs Carlisle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Yeovil1.24
Carlisle1.6
1X2
Yeovil
Draw
Carlisle
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Yeovil
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Carlisle
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Yeovil
1–2–3
Carlisle
(6 last)
- Carlisle3-0Yeovil
- Yeovil1-1Carlisle
- Yeovil0-0Carlisle
- Carlisle0-1Yeovil
- Yeovil0-1Carlisle
- Carlisle4-0Yeovil
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yeovil 1475 · Carlisle 1518
| Yeovil | Draw | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Market | 29% | 25% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlisle (rating 1475 vs 1518).
- H2H favours Carlisle: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Yeovil | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.1 | 2.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yeovil 1–2–3 Carlisle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England National League | Carlisle | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Yeovil |
| 25/10/25 England National League | Yeovil | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Carlisle |
| 04/05/19 England League 2 | Yeovil | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Carlisle |
| 27/10/18 England League 2 | Carlisle | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Yeovil |
| 24/02/18 England League 2 | Yeovil | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Carlisle |
| 11/11/17 England League 2 | Carlisle | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Yeovil |
Standings · England National League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harrogate Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | AFC Hornchurch | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sutton Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Southend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Hartlepool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Forest Green | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Worthing | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Eastleigh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Aldershot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Boreham Wood | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Tamworth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | AFC Fylde | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Wealdstone | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Scunthorpe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Yeovil | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Carlisle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Halifax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Gateshead | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Boston Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Altrincham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 | Barrow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Kidderminster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Woking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yeovil
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 28/07 | Farnham UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Wycombe Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Merthyr Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Melksham Town Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Solihull Moors England National League |
1-4 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | York England National League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Halifax England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/04 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | Truro City England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Carlisle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Worthing England National League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Salford City UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Darlington 1883 UK Friendlies |
4-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Workington Club Friendly List |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Boreham Wood England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 25/04 | Brackley England National League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Truro City England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | Sutton Utd England National League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 06/04 | Morecambe England National League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Gateshead England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yeovil vs Carlisle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Carlisle win (45%). Probabilities: Yeovil 29%, draw 26%, Carlisle 45%.
How many goals are expected in Yeovil vs Carlisle?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Yeovil 1.24 · Carlisle 1.6), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Yeovil vs Carlisle?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.