Football · England National League · 22/08, 13:30
Prediction: Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool
Team pages: Sutton Utd · Hartlepool
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Sutton Utd1.63
Hartlepool1.72
1X2
Sutton Utd
Draw
Hartlepool
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sutton Utd
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Hartlepool
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sutton Utd
2–2–2
Hartlepool
(6 last)
- Hartlepool0-2Sutton Utd
- Sutton Utd3-3Hartlepool
- Sutton Utd1-2Hartlepool
- Hartlepool4-3Sutton Utd
- Hartlepool2-2Sutton Utd
- Sutton Utd2-0Hartlepool
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sutton Utd 1547 · Hartlepool 1533
| Sutton Utd | Draw | Hartlepool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sutton Utd | Hartlepool | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.4 | 2.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutton Utd 2–2–2 Hartlepool
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 England National League | Hartlepool | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Sutton Utd |
| 18/10/25 England National League | Sutton Utd | 3-3 HT 1-0 | Hartlepool |
| 08/02/25 England National League | Sutton Utd | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Hartlepool |
| 05/10/24 England National League | Hartlepool | 4-3 HT 0-2 | Sutton Utd |
| 11/02/23 England League 2 | Hartlepool | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Sutton Utd |
| 17/09/22 England League 2 | Sutton Utd | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Hartlepool |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harrogate Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | AFC Hornchurch | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sutton Utd | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Southend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Hartlepool | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Forest Green | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Boreham Wood | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | AFC Fylde | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Gateshead | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Boston Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Worthing | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Aldershot | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Kidderminster | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Yeovil | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Tamworth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 17 | Carlisle | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 20 | Halifax | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 | Altrincham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 | Barrow | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 | Woking | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sutton Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Altrincham England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Woking England National League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Southampton U21 UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 28/07 | Folkestone Invicta UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Horsham UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Walton & Hersham UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | AFC Wimbledon UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Tonbridge Angels UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | AFC Totton UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
Hartlepool
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Aldershot England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/08 | Middlesbrough U21 England National League Cup |
0-3 | 0-10 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Barrow England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Fleetwood Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Grimsby UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Hebburn Town UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Spennymoor Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/07 | Redcar Athletic UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Boston Utd England National League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Southend England National League |
1-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hartlepool win (39%). Probabilities: Sutton Utd 35%, draw 26%, Hartlepool 39%.
How many goals are expected in Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Sutton Utd 1.63 · Hartlepool 1.72), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.