Football · England National League · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Eastleigh vs Aldershot

Team pages: Eastleigh · Aldershot

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Eastleigh1.65

Aldershot1.44

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Eastleigh Draw Aldershot

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Eastleigh 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWWLWW

Aldershot 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLWLDW

Head-to-head

Eastleigh 4–2 Aldershot (6 last)

Eastleigh1-4Aldershot
Eastleigh2-1Aldershot
Aldershot2-3Eastleigh
Eastleigh2-0Aldershot
Aldershot2-1Eastleigh
Aldershot3-5Eastleigh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eastleigh 1462 · Aldershot 1510

	Eastleigh	Draw	Aldershot
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aldershot (rating 1462 vs 1510).
H2H favours Eastleigh: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eastleigh	Aldershot
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.29
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:45 +4’	2.20	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:49	2.27	3.79	2.76
06:40	2.29▲	3.76▼	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastleigh 4–0–2 Aldershot

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England National League	Eastleigh	1-4 HT 0-0	Aldershot
13/12/25 England FA Trophy	Eastleigh	2-1 HT 1-0	Aldershot
20/08/25 England National League	Aldershot	2-3 HT 0-1	Eastleigh
15/02/25 England National League	Eastleigh	2-0 HT 2-0	Aldershot
19/10/24 England National League	Aldershot	2-1 HT 0-0	Eastleigh
16/12/23 England National League	Aldershot	3-5 HT 0-3	Eastleigh

Standings · England National League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sutton Utd	4	4	0	0	7	1	12
2	Boreham Wood	4	3	1	0	11	5	10
3	Southend	4	3	0	1	8	5	9
4	AFC Hornchurch	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
5	Eastleigh	4	3	0	1	6	4	9
6	Yeovil	4	2	2	0	7	3	8
7	Harrogate Town	4	2	1	1	11	8	7
8	AFC Fylde	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
9	Aldershot	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
10	Kidderminster	4	2	1	1	5	5	7
11	Boston Utd	4	2	0	2	4	3	6
11	Hartlepool	4	2	0	2	4	3	6
13	Worthing	4	2	0	2	7	7	6
14	Forest Green	4	2	0	2	5	8	6
15	Carlisle	4	1	2	1	8	6	5
16	Scunthorpe	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
17	Tamworth	4	1	1	2	8	11	4
18	Halifax	4	1	0	3	8	9	3
19	Altrincham	4	1	0	3	3	6	3
19	Gateshead	4	1	0	3	3	6	3
21	Woking	4	1	0	3	3	8	3
22	Wealdstone	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
23	Barrow	4	0	1	3	4	8	1
24	Solihull Moors	4	0	0	4	4	13	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eastleigh	Aldershot
Hartlepool	1-0 W	0-1 L
Kidderminster	0-1 L	1-1 D
Gateshead	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Eastleigh (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Eastleigh

LDWLDWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
22/08	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	3-2	6	1	W
15/08	Kidderminster England National League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
08/08	Gateshead England National League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
25/04	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
18/04	Tamworth England National League	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
11/04	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
06/04	Yeovil England National League	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
03/04	Woking England National League	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
28/03	Forest Green England National League	2-1	2-4	4	9	L

Aldershot

DLLLLLWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Harrogate Town England National League	3-0	3-1	7	4	W
22/08	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	1-1	2	9	D
15/08	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
08/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
25/04	Truro City England National League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
18/04	Brackley England National League	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
14/04	Southend England National League	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
11/04	Gateshead England National League	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
06/04	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
03/04	Sutton Utd England National League	2-1	2-2	9	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eastleigh vs Aldershot?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Eastleigh win (41%). Probabilities: Eastleigh 41%, draw 26%, Aldershot 33%.

How many goals are expected in Eastleigh vs Aldershot?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Eastleigh 1.65 · Aldershot 1.44), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Eastleigh vs Aldershot?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.