Football · England National League · 31/08, 16:00
Prediction: Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone
Team pages: Sutton Utd · Wealdstone
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Sutton Utd1.62
Wealdstone1.09
1X2
Sutton Utd
Draw
Wealdstone
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sutton Utd
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Wealdstone
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sutton Utd
3–2–1
Wealdstone
(6 last)
- Sutton Utd3-0Wealdstone
- Wealdstone4-2Sutton Utd
- Sutton Utd2-2Wealdstone
- Wealdstone0-1Sutton Utd
- Sutton Utd4-1Wealdstone
- Wealdstone3-3Sutton Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sutton Utd 1538 · Wealdstone 1476
| Sutton Utd | Draw | Wealdstone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sutton Utd (rating 1538 vs 1476).
- H2H favours Sutton Utd: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sutton Utd | Wealdstone | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.2 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutton Utd 3–2–1 Wealdstone
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England National League | Sutton Utd | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Wealdstone |
| 25/10/25 England National League | Wealdstone | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Sutton Utd |
| 15/01/25 England National League | Sutton Utd | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Wealdstone |
| 20/08/24 England National League | Wealdstone | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sutton Utd |
| 20/02/21 England National League | Sutton Utd | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Wealdstone |
| 21/11/20 England National League | Wealdstone | 3-3 HT 0-2 | Sutton Utd |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutton Utd | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Boreham Wood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Southend | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | AFC Hornchurch | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Eastleigh | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Yeovil | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Harrogate Town | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | AFC Fylde | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Aldershot | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Kidderminster | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Boston Utd | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Hartlepool | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Worthing | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 14 | Forest Green | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Carlisle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | Scunthorpe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Tamworth | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
| 18 | Halifax | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Altrincham | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Gateshead | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 21 | Woking | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 22 | Wealdstone | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 23 | Barrow | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sutton Utd | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| Carlisle | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Southend | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Aldershot | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Rochdale | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Wealdstone (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sutton Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Gateshead England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Hartlepool England National League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Altrincham England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Woking England National League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Altrincham England National League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Carlisle England National League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 06/04 | Southend England National League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Aldershot England National League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 28/03 | Rochdale England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Wealdstone
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Carlisle England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Worthing England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Harrogate Town England National League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 08/08 | AFC Fylde England National League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Southend England National League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 14/04 | Boston Utd England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Rochdale England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Aldershot England National League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sutton Utd win (49%). Probabilities: Sutton Utd 49%, draw 26%, Wealdstone 25%.
How many goals are expected in Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Sutton Utd 1.62 · Wealdstone 1.09), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.