Football · England National League · 31/08, 16:00
Prediction: Carlisle vs Scunthorpe
Team pages: Carlisle · Scunthorpe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Carlisle1.77
Scunthorpe1.03
1X2
Carlisle
Draw
Scunthorpe
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Carlisle
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Scunthorpe
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carlisle
4–1–1
Scunthorpe
(6 last)
- Carlisle3-2Scunthorpe
- Scunthorpe0-1Carlisle
- Scunthorpe0-1Carlisle
- Carlisle2-2Scunthorpe
- Carlisle2-0Scunthorpe
- Scunthorpe1-0Carlisle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlisle 1526 · Scunthorpe 1504
| Carlisle | Draw | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Carlisle: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carlisle | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.4 | 1.8 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlisle 4–1–1 Scunthorpe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/26 England National League | Carlisle | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Scunthorpe |
| 04/10/25 England National League | Scunthorpe | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Carlisle |
| 01/01/22 England League 2 | Scunthorpe | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Carlisle |
| 18/09/21 England League 2 | Carlisle | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Scunthorpe |
| 06/04/21 England League 2 | Carlisle | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Scunthorpe |
| 26/09/20 England League 2 | Scunthorpe | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Carlisle |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutton Utd | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Boreham Wood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Southend | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | AFC Hornchurch | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Eastleigh | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Yeovil | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Harrogate Town | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | AFC Fylde | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Aldershot | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Kidderminster | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Boston Utd | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Hartlepool | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Worthing | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 14 | Forest Green | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Carlisle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | Scunthorpe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Tamworth | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
| 18 | Halifax | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Altrincham | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Gateshead | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 21 | Woking | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 22 | Wealdstone | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 23 | Barrow | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carlisle | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|
| Wealdstone | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Yeovil | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Brackley | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Gateshead | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Carlisle (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlisle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Wealdstone England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Worthing England National League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Boreham Wood England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 25/04 | Brackley England National League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Truro City England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | Sutton Utd England National League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 06/04 | Morecambe England National League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Gateshead England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
Scunthorpe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Solihull Moors England National League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Southend England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Rochdale England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Southend England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 11/04 | Brackley England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | Gateshead England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlisle vs Scunthorpe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carlisle win (54%). Probabilities: Carlisle 54%, draw 25%, Scunthorpe 21%.
How many goals are expected in Carlisle vs Scunthorpe?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Carlisle 1.77 · Scunthorpe 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Scunthorpe?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.