Football · England National League · 28/08, 20:45
Prediction: Gateshead vs Sutton Utd
Team pages: Gateshead · Sutton Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Gateshead1.46
Sutton Utd1.41
1X2
Gateshead
Draw
Sutton Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gateshead
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Sutton Utd
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gateshead
2–2–2
Sutton Utd
(6 last)
- Gateshead1-1Sutton Utd
- Sutton Utd4-2Gateshead
- Gateshead4-3Sutton Utd
- Sutton Utd0-1Gateshead
- Sutton Utd4-2Gateshead
- Gateshead0-0Sutton Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gateshead 1471 · Sutton Utd 1538
| Gateshead | Draw | Sutton Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sutton Utd (rating 1471 vs 1538).
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gateshead | Sutton Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.5 | 1.5 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gateshead 2–2–2 Sutton Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 England National League | Gateshead | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sutton Utd |
| 29/11/25 England National League | Sutton Utd | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Gateshead |
| 18/02/25 England National League | Gateshead | 4-3 HT 2-1 | Sutton Utd |
| 23/10/24 England National League | Sutton Utd | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gateshead |
| 16/03/19 England National League | Sutton Utd | 4-2 HT 0-1 | Gateshead |
| 17/11/18 England National League | Gateshead | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sutton Utd |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Sutton Utd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Harrogate Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Boreham Wood | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Hartlepool | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Boston Utd | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | AFC Hornchurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Eastleigh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Worthing | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Forest Green | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Yeovil | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | AFC Fylde | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | Aldershot | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Kidderminster | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Halifax | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| 17 | Gateshead | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Woking | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 19 | Scunthorpe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 20 | Barrow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 22 | Tamworth | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 23 | Altrincham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gateshead | Sutton Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Woking | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Eastleigh | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Altrincham | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Aldershot | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Carlisle | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sutton Utd (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gateshead
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Woking England National League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Altrincham England National League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Woking England National League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Aldershot England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 06/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 03/04 | Carlisle England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Yeovil England National League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 24/03 | York England National League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
Sutton Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Hartlepool England National League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Altrincham England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Woking England National League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Altrincham England National League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Carlisle England National League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 06/04 | Southend England National League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Aldershot England National League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 28/03 | Rochdale England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/03 | Eastleigh England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gateshead vs Sutton Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gateshead win (38%). Probabilities: Gateshead 38%, draw 27%, Sutton Utd 36%.
How many goals are expected in Gateshead vs Sutton Utd?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Gateshead 1.46 · Sutton Utd 1.41), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Gateshead vs Sutton Utd?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.