Football · England National League · 05/09, 18:30
Prediction: Boreham Wood vs Carlisle
Team pages: Boreham Wood · Carlisle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Boreham Wood1.85
Carlisle1.48
1X2
Boreham Wood
Draw
Carlisle
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Boreham Wood
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Carlisle
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boreham Wood
1–2–0
Carlisle
(3 last)
- Carlisle1-1Boreham Wood
- Boreham Wood2-0Carlisle
- Carlisle3-3Boreham Wood
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boreham Wood 1634 · Carlisle 1526
| Boreham Wood | Draw | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boreham Wood (rating 1634 vs 1526).
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boreham Wood | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 7.7 | 2.4 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boreham Wood 1–2–0 Carlisle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 England National League | Carlisle | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Boreham Wood |
| 21/12/25 England National League | Boreham Wood | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Carlisle |
| 16/08/25 England National League | Carlisle | 3-3 HT 0-1 | Boreham Wood |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutton Utd | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Boreham Wood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Southend | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | AFC Hornchurch | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Eastleigh | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Yeovil | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Harrogate Town | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | AFC Fylde | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Aldershot | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Kidderminster | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Boston Utd | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Hartlepool | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Worthing | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 14 | Forest Green | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Carlisle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | Scunthorpe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Tamworth | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
| 18 | Halifax | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Altrincham | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Gateshead | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 21 | Woking | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 22 | Wealdstone | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 23 | Barrow | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boreham Wood | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Morecambe | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boreham Wood
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Boston Utd England National League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Forest Green England National League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Halifax England National League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Tamworth England National League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | Rochdale England National League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Carlisle England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 29/04 | Forest Green England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Sutton Utd England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Morecambe England National League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | Hartlepool England National League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
Carlisle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Wealdstone England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Worthing England National League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Boreham Wood England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 25/04 | Brackley England National League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Truro City England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | Sutton Utd England National League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 06/04 | Morecambe England National League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Gateshead England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boreham Wood vs Carlisle?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Boreham Wood win (45%). Probabilities: Boreham Wood 45%, draw 24%, Carlisle 30%.
How many goals are expected in Boreham Wood vs Carlisle?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Boreham Wood 1.85 · Carlisle 1.48), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Boreham Wood vs Carlisle?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.