Football · England National League · 05/09, 13:30
Prediction: Southend vs Yeovil
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Southend1.82
Yeovil1
1X2
Southend
Draw
Yeovil
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Southend
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Yeovil
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southend
3–1–2
Yeovil
(6 last)
- Southend2-1Yeovil
- Yeovil0-1Southend
- Yeovil2-2Southend
- Southend0-1Yeovil
- Yeovil2-0Southend
- Yeovil0-2Southend
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southend 1542 · Yeovil 1493
| Southend | Draw | Yeovil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southend (rating 1542 vs 1493).
- H2H favours Southend: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southend | Yeovil | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5 | 1.4 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southend 3–1–2 Yeovil
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/26 England National League | Southend | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Yeovil |
| 15/11/25 England National League | Yeovil | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Southend |
| 01/03/25 England National League | Yeovil | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Southend |
| 09/11/24 England National League | Southend | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Yeovil |
| 14/10/23 England FA Cup Qualification | Yeovil | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Southend |
| 01/04/23 England National League | Yeovil | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Southend |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutton Utd | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Boreham Wood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Southend | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | AFC Hornchurch | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Eastleigh | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Yeovil | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Harrogate Town | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | AFC Fylde | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Aldershot | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Kidderminster | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Boston Utd | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Hartlepool | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Worthing | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 14 | Forest Green | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Carlisle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | Scunthorpe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Tamworth | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
| 18 | Halifax | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Altrincham | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Gateshead | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 21 | Woking | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 22 | Wealdstone | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 23 | Barrow | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Southend | Yeovil |
|---|---|---|
| Solihull Moors | 3-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Scunthorpe | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Halifax | 6-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Southend (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southend
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Kidderminster England National League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Solihull Moors England National League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Altrincham England National League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 28/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | Wealdstone England National League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/04 | Hartlepool England National League |
1-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Halifax England National League |
3-1 | 6-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | Aldershot England National League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Solihull Moors England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
Yeovil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Barrow England National League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Gateshead England National League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 15/08 | Carlisle England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Solihull Moors England National League |
1-4 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | York England National League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Halifax England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/04 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | Truro City England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 31/03 | Southend England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southend vs Yeovil?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Southend win (56%). Probabilities: Southend 56%, draw 24%, Yeovil 20%.
How many goals are expected in Southend vs Yeovil?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Southend 1.82 · Yeovil 1), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Southend vs Yeovil?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.