Football · England National League · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Tamworth vs Boston Utd

Team pages: Tamworth · Boston Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Tamworth1.3

Boston Utd1.19

1X2

39% 28% 34%

Tamworth Draw Boston Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tamworth 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWDLLW

Boston Utd 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Tamworth 1–4–1 Boston Utd (6 last)

Boston Utd0-0Tamworth
Tamworth1-1Boston Utd
Tamworth1-3Boston Utd
Tamworth3-0Boston Utd
Boston Utd1-1Tamworth
Tamworth0-0Boston Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tamworth 1507 · Boston Utd 1517

	Tamworth	Draw	Boston Utd
Our model	38%	30%	33%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tamworth	Boston Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.3 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +7’	2.30	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tamworth 1–4–1 Boston Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England National League	Boston Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	Tamworth
13/12/25 England FA Trophy	Tamworth	1-1 HT 0-0	Boston Utd
25/10/25 England National League	Tamworth	1-3 HT 0-1	Boston Utd
18/01/25 England National League	Tamworth	3-0 HT 2-0	Boston Utd
24/08/24 England National League	Boston Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Tamworth
23/01/24 England National League North	Tamworth	0-0 HT 0-0	Boston Utd

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sutton Utd	4	4	0	0	7	1	12
2	Boreham Wood	4	3	1	0	11	5	10
3	Southend	4	3	0	1	8	5	9
4	AFC Hornchurch	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
5	Eastleigh	4	3	0	1	6	4	9
6	Yeovil	4	2	2	0	7	3	8
7	Harrogate Town	4	2	1	1	11	8	7
8	AFC Fylde	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
9	Aldershot	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
10	Kidderminster	4	2	1	1	5	5	7
11	Boston Utd	4	2	0	2	4	3	6
11	Hartlepool	4	2	0	2	4	3	6
13	Worthing	4	2	0	2	7	7	6
14	Forest Green	4	2	0	2	5	8	6
15	Carlisle	4	1	2	1	8	6	5
16	Scunthorpe	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
17	Tamworth	4	1	1	2	8	11	4
18	Halifax	4	1	0	3	8	9	3
19	Altrincham	4	1	0	3	3	6	3
19	Gateshead	4	1	0	3	3	6	3
21	Woking	4	1	0	3	3	8	3
22	Wealdstone	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
23	Barrow	4	0	1	3	4	8	1
24	Solihull Moors	4	0	0	4	4	13	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tamworth	Boston Utd
Boreham Wood	3-3 D	1-2 L
York	0-1 L	0-1 L
Solihull Moors	1-0 W	2-0 W
Brackley	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tamworth (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tamworth

WWDLDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	3-2	8	9	W
22/08	Halifax England National League	0-3	1-4	7	4	L
15/08	AFC Fylde England National League	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-1	3-3	2	1	D
25/04	Braintree Town England National League	2-1	5-1	10	2	W
18/04	Eastleigh England National League	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
11/04	York England National League	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
06/04	Halifax England National League	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
03/04	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
28/03	Brackley England National League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Boston Utd

LDWDWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
22/08	Altrincham England National League	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
15/08	Solihull Moors England National League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	Aldershot England National League	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
25/04	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
18/04	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
14/04	Wealdstone England National League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
11/04	Truro City England National League	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
06/04	Brackley England National League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
03/04	York England National League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tamworth vs Boston Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tamworth win (39%). Probabilities: Tamworth 39%, draw 28%, Boston Utd 34%.

How many goals are expected in Tamworth vs Boston Utd?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Tamworth 1.3 · Boston Utd 1.19), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tamworth vs Boston Utd?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.