Football · England National League · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Forest Green vs Gateshead

Team pages: Forest Green · Gateshead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Forest Green2.09

Gateshead1

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Forest Green Draw Gateshead

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Forest Green 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWLLLW

Gateshead 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Forest Green 4–2 Gateshead (6 last)

Gateshead0-2Forest Green
Forest Green3-1Gateshead
Forest Green2-3Gateshead
Gateshead0-2Forest Green
Gateshead3-1Forest Green
Forest Green1-0Gateshead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forest Green 1506 · Gateshead 1411

	Forest Green	Draw	Gateshead
Our model	61%	22%	16%
Market	62%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forest Green (rating 1506 vs 1411).
H2H favours Forest Green: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forest Green	Gateshead
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.7	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.70 ★
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.72

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +11’	1.48	4.20	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:53 +370’	1.37	5.13	6.57
02:07 +24’	1.39▲	5.04▼	6.37▼
04:25 +44’	1.45▲	4.75▼	5.77▼
09:51 +74’	1.45▲	4.70▼	5.72▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Forest Green 4–0–2 Gateshead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England National League	Gateshead	0-2 HT 0-1	Forest Green
15/11/25 England National League	Forest Green	3-1 HT 3-0	Gateshead
12/04/25 England National League	Forest Green	2-3 HT 0-2	Gateshead
21/09/24 England National League	Gateshead	0-2 HT 0-1	Forest Green
18/02/17 England National League	Gateshead	3-1 HT 2-0	Forest Green
13/08/16 England National League	Forest Green	1-0 HT 0-0	Gateshead

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	6	5	1	0	16	8	16
2	Harrogate Town	6	4	1	1	15	9	13
3	Southend	6	4	1	1	12	8	13
4	AFC Hornchurch	6	4	0	2	10	8	12
5	Sutton Utd	6	4	0	2	7	6	12
6	AFC Fylde	6	3	2	1	13	9	11
7	Yeovil	6	3	2	1	12	8	11
8	Kidderminster	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
9	Aldershot	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
10	Eastleigh	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
11	Hartlepool	6	3	0	3	5	4	9
12	Altrincham	6	3	0	3	7	8	9
13	Forest Green	6	3	0	3	7	10	9
14	Carlisle	6	2	2	2	13	10	8
15	Boston Utd	6	2	1	3	8	8	7
16	Worthing	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
17	Halifax	6	2	0	4	9	10	6
18	Barrow	6	1	2	3	8	9	5
19	Tamworth	6	1	2	3	12	16	5
20	Wealdstone	6	1	2	3	7	11	5
21	Scunthorpe	6	1	1	4	8	12	4
22	Gateshead	6	1	1	4	5	9	4
23	Woking	6	1	1	4	4	10	4
24	Solihull Moors	6	0	1	5	6	17	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forest Green

WLWDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
31/08	Altrincham England National League	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
28/08	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
22/08	Boreham Wood England National League	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
15/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
08/08	Halifax England National League	0-1	3-2	8	3	W
29/04	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
25/04	Morecambe England National League	2-0	5-0	6	0	W
18/04	Hartlepool England National League	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
11/04	Braintree Town England National League	1-0	3-1	7	2	W

Gateshead

WWLLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
31/08	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	1-2	1	1	L
28/08	Sutton Utd England National League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
22/08	Yeovil England National League	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
15/08	Woking England National League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
08/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
25/04	Altrincham England National League	1-2	1-3	6	0	L
18/04	Woking England National League	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
11/04	Aldershot England National League	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
06/04	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	2-0	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forest Green vs Gateshead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forest Green win (62%). Probabilities: Forest Green 62%, draw 22%, Gateshead 16%.

How many goals are expected in Forest Green vs Gateshead?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Forest Green 2.09 · Gateshead 1), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Gateshead?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.