Football · England National League · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Eastleigh vs Carlisle
Team pages: Eastleigh · Carlisle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Eastleigh1.1
Carlisle1.71
1X2
Eastleigh
Draw
Carlisle
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Eastleigh
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Carlisle
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Eastleigh
0–1–1
Carlisle
(2 last)
- Eastleigh1-2Carlisle
- Carlisle1-1Eastleigh
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eastleigh 1459 · Carlisle 1545
| Eastleigh | Draw | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Market | 24% | 24% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlisle (rating 1459 vs 1545).
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eastleigh | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.9 | 2.4 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastleigh 0–1–1 Carlisle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 England National League | Eastleigh | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Carlisle |
| 15/11/25 England National League | Carlisle | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Eastleigh |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 10 | 14 |
| 4 | Kidderminster | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Southend | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 14 |
| 6 | Aldershot | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Forest Green | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | AFC Hornchurch | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Sutton Utd | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| 10 | Yeovil | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Halifax | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| 14 | Hartlepool | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Altrincham | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 9 |
| 16 | Worthing | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 8 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 19 | Boston Utd | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 19 | Woking | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 21 | Barrow | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 6 |
| 22 | Tamworth | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 5 |
| 23 | Gateshead | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Eastleigh | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Scunthorpe | 3-2 W | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eastleigh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/09 | Altrincham England National League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Aldershot England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 28/08 | Hartlepool England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Kidderminster England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Gateshead England National League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Tamworth England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Altrincham England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
Carlisle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Southend England National League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Wealdstone England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Worthing England National League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Boreham Wood England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 25/04 | Brackley England National League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Truro City England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eastleigh vs Carlisle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Carlisle win (51%). Probabilities: Eastleigh 24%, draw 25%, Carlisle 51%.
How many goals are expected in Eastleigh vs Carlisle?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Eastleigh 1.1 · Carlisle 1.71), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Eastleigh vs Carlisle?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.