Football · England National League · 19/09, 13:30
Prediction: Tamworth vs Wealdstone
Team pages: Tamworth · Wealdstone
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.58Total
Tamworth2.04
Wealdstone1.54
1X2
Tamworth
Draw
Wealdstone
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Tamworth
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Wealdstone
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tamworth
2–1–1
Wealdstone
(4 last)
- Wealdstone3-2Tamworth
- Tamworth1-1Wealdstone
- Tamworth4-1Wealdstone
- Wealdstone0-1Tamworth
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tamworth 1472 · Wealdstone 1520
| Tamworth | Draw | Wealdstone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wealdstone (rating 1472 vs 1520).
- H2H favours Tamworth: 2-1-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tamworth | Wealdstone | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.2 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.5 | 3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tamworth 2–1–1 Wealdstone
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 England National League | Wealdstone | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Tamworth |
| 24/09/25 England National League | Tamworth | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Wealdstone |
| 04/03/25 England National League | Tamworth | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Wealdstone |
| 04/02/25 England National League | Wealdstone | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tamworth |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 10 | 14 |
| 4 | Kidderminster | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Southend | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 14 |
| 6 | Aldershot | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Forest Green | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | AFC Hornchurch | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Sutton Utd | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| 10 | Yeovil | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Halifax | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| 14 | Hartlepool | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Altrincham | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 9 |
| 16 | Worthing | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 8 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 19 | Boston Utd | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 19 | Woking | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 21 | Barrow | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 6 |
| 22 | Tamworth | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 5 |
| 23 | Gateshead | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tamworth | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Boston Utd | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Worthing | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| AFC Fylde | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Wealdstone (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tamworth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Harrogate Town England National League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Boston Utd England National League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 31/08 | Yeovil England National League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 28/08 | Worthing England National League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 22/08 | Halifax England National League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | AFC Fylde England National League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Boreham Wood England National League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Braintree Town England National League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Eastleigh England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | York England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
Wealdstone
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Boston Utd England National League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Kidderminster England National League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 31/08 | Sutton Utd England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 28/08 | Carlisle England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Worthing England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Harrogate Town England National League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 08/08 | AFC Fylde England National League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Southend England National League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 14/04 | Boston Utd England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tamworth vs Wealdstone?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tamworth win (48%). Probabilities: Tamworth 48%, draw 24%, Wealdstone 28%.
How many goals are expected in Tamworth vs Wealdstone?
The model expects 3.58 goals (Tamworth 2.04 · Wealdstone 1.54), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tamworth vs Wealdstone?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.