Football · England National League · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Gateshead vs Southend
Team pages: Gateshead · Southend
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.09Total
Gateshead1.19
Southend1.9
1X2
Gateshead
Draw
Southend
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Gateshead
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Southend
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gateshead
2–3–1
Southend
(6 last)
- Southend1-1Gateshead
- Gateshead0-3Southend
- Gateshead0-0Southend
- Southend1-3Gateshead
- Southend0-1Gateshead
- Gateshead1-1Southend
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gateshead 1410 · Southend 1543
| Gateshead | Draw | Southend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Market | 23% | 24% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southend (rating 1410 vs 1543).
- H2H favours Gateshead: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gateshead | Southend | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.9 | 1.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.3 | 2.5 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gateshead 2–3–1 Southend
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 England National League | Southend | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Gateshead |
| 09/08/25 England National League | Gateshead | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Southend |
| 05/05/25 England National League | Gateshead | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Southend |
| 28/09/24 England National League | Southend | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Gateshead |
| 03/02/24 England National League | Southend | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gateshead |
| 25/11/23 England National League | Gateshead | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Southend |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 10 | 14 |
| 4 | Kidderminster | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Southend | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 14 |
| 6 | Aldershot | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Forest Green | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | AFC Hornchurch | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Sutton Utd | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| 10 | Yeovil | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Halifax | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| 14 | Hartlepool | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Altrincham | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 9 |
| 16 | Worthing | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 8 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 19 | Boston Utd | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 19 | Woking | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 21 | Barrow | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 6 |
| 22 | Tamworth | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 5 |
| 23 | Gateshead | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gateshead | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| Solihull Moors | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Yeovil | 0-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Woking | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Altrincham | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Southend (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gateshead
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Forest Green England National League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Solihull Moors England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 31/08 | Harrogate Town England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 28/08 | Sutton Utd England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Woking England National League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Altrincham England National League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Woking England National League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Aldershot England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Southend
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Carlisle England National League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Woking England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | Kidderminster England National League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Solihull Moors England National League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Altrincham England National League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 28/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | Wealdstone England National League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/04 | Hartlepool England National League |
1-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gateshead vs Southend?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Southend win (53%). Probabilities: Gateshead 23%, draw 24%, Southend 53%.
How many goals are expected in Gateshead vs Southend?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Gateshead 1.19 · Southend 1.9), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Gateshead vs Southend?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.