Football · England National League · 12/09, 18:30
Prediction: Carlisle vs Southend
Team pages: Carlisle · Southend
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.39Total
Carlisle1.84
Southend1.55
1X2
Carlisle
Draw
Southend
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Carlisle
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Southend
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carlisle
3–2–1
Southend
(6 last)
- Carlisle2-2Southend
- Southend1-2Carlisle
- Southend0-2Carlisle
- Carlisle2-0Southend
- Southend2-0Carlisle
- Carlisle1-1Southend
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlisle 1532 · Southend 1547
| Carlisle | Draw | Southend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Carlisle: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carlisle | Southend | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.1 | 2.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 2.5 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlisle 3–2–1 Southend
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 England National League | Carlisle | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Southend |
| 08/11/25 England National League | Southend | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Carlisle |
| 03/04/21 England League 2 | Southend | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Carlisle |
| 19/09/20 England League 2 | Carlisle | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Southend |
| 28/02/15 England League 2 | Southend | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Carlisle |
| 23/08/14 England League 2 | Carlisle | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Southend |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | Southend | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | AFC Hornchurch | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Sutton Utd | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | AFC Fylde | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Yeovil | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Kidderminster | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 9 | Aldershot | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Eastleigh | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 11 | Hartlepool | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 12 | Altrincham | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 13 | Forest Green | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 9 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 8 |
| 15 | Boston Utd | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 16 | Worthing | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 7 |
| 17 | Halifax | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| 18 | Barrow | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 5 |
| 19 | Tamworth | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 5 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 5 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 4 |
| 22 | Gateshead | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| 23 | Woking | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carlisle | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Wealdstone | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Yeovil | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Southend (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlisle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Wealdstone England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Worthing England National League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Boreham Wood England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 25/04 | Brackley England National League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Truro City England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | Sutton Utd England National League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
Southend
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Woking England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | Kidderminster England National League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Solihull Moors England National League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Altrincham England National League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 28/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | Wealdstone England National League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/04 | Hartlepool England National League |
1-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Halifax England National League |
3-1 | 6-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlisle vs Southend?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carlisle win (44%). Probabilities: Carlisle 44%, draw 25%, Southend 32%.
How many goals are expected in Carlisle vs Southend?
The model expects 3.39 goals (Carlisle 1.84 · Southend 1.55), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Southend?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.