Football · England National League · 15/09, 20:45

Prediction: Carlisle vs Forest Green

Team pages: Carlisle · Forest Green

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Carlisle2.06

Forest Green1.53

1X2

49% 24% 27%

Carlisle Draw Forest Green

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Carlisle 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWDWLD

Forest Green 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Carlisle 2–4 Forest Green (6 last)

Forest Green1-3Carlisle
Carlisle4-2Forest Green
Forest Green3-0Carlisle
Carlisle0-2Forest Green
Carlisle1-2Forest Green
Forest Green1-0Carlisle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carlisle 1545 · Forest Green 1467

	Carlisle	Draw	Forest Green
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlisle (rating 1545 vs 1467).
H2H favours Forest Green: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carlisle	Forest Green
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	3.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.70

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.82 ★
2	3.40 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:32 +14’	1.90	3.70	3.40
06:48 +6’	2.00▲	3.60▼	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:43 +63’	1.99	3.89	3.25
06:45 +9’	2.05▲	3.82▼	3.14▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlisle 2–0–4 Forest Green

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England National League	Forest Green	1-3 HT 0-3	Carlisle
18/10/25 England National League	Carlisle	4-2 HT 2-1	Forest Green
22/01/22 England League 2	Forest Green	3-0 HT 1-0	Carlisle
02/10/21 England League 2	Carlisle	0-2 HT 0-2	Forest Green
02/02/21 England League 2	Carlisle	1-2 HT 0-0	Forest Green
19/12/20 England League 2	Forest Green	1-0 HT 0-0	Carlisle

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	7	5	2	0	17	9	17
2	Harrogate Town	7	5	1	1	18	10	16
3	AFC Fylde	7	4	2	1	17	10	14
4	Kidderminster	7	4	2	1	12	7	14
5	Southend	7	4	2	1	14	10	14
6	Aldershot	7	4	2	1	9	5	14
7	Forest Green	7	4	0	3	11	10	12
8	AFC Hornchurch	7	4	0	3	10	11	12
9	Sutton Utd	7	4	0	3	7	8	12
10	Yeovil	7	3	2	2	13	12	11
11	Eastleigh	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
12	Carlisle	7	2	3	2	15	12	9
13	Halifax	7	3	0	4	12	10	9
14	Hartlepool	7	3	0	4	5	6	9
15	Altrincham	7	3	0	4	8	13	9
16	Worthing	7	2	2	3	13	14	8
17	Wealdstone	7	2	2	3	10	12	8
18	Scunthorpe	7	2	1	4	10	12	7
19	Boston Utd	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
19	Woking	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
21	Barrow	7	1	3	3	10	11	6
22	Tamworth	7	1	2	4	13	19	5
23	Gateshead	7	1	1	5	5	13	4
24	Solihull Moors	7	0	1	6	7	19	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carlisle	Forest Green
Boreham Wood	1-2 L	0-3 L
AFC Hornchurch	4-1 W	1-0 W
Worthing	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Carlisle (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carlisle

WWDLDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Southend England National League	1-0	2-2	7	5	D
05/09	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
31/08	Scunthorpe England National League	3-1	4-2	6	4	W
28/08	Wealdstone England National League	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
22/08	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	4-1	8	1	W
15/08	Yeovil England National League	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
08/08	Worthing England National League	1-0	2-3	8	2	L
03/05	Boreham Wood England National League	1-1	1-1	7	9	D
25/04	Brackley England National League	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
18/04	Truro City England National League	0-0	1-0	2	0	W

Forest Green

LWDWWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Gateshead England National League	1-0	4-0	5	6	W
05/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
31/08	Altrincham England National League	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
28/08	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
22/08	Boreham Wood England National League	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
15/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
08/08	Halifax England National League	0-1	3-2	8	3	W
29/04	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
25/04	Morecambe England National League	2-0	5-0	6	0	W
18/04	Hartlepool England National League	0-2	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carlisle vs Forest Green?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carlisle win (49%). Probabilities: Carlisle 49%, draw 24%, Forest Green 27%.

How many goals are expected in Carlisle vs Forest Green?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Carlisle 2.06 · Forest Green 1.53), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Forest Green?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.