Football · England National League · 15/09, 20:45

Prediction: Southend vs Tamworth

Team pages: Southend · Tamworth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.96Total

Southend2.58

Tamworth1.38

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Southend Draw Tamworth

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Southend 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Tamworth 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Southend 2–1–1 Tamworth (4 last)

Tamworth2-1Southend
Southend2-0Tamworth
Tamworth1-1Southend
Southend2-0Tamworth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southend 1544 · Tamworth 1478

	Southend	Draw	Tamworth
Our model	63%	19%	18%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southend (rating 1544 vs 1478).
H2H favours Southend: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southend	Tamworth
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.6	1.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.51 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:04 +1’	1.48	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:41 +64’	1.52	4.54	5.11
00:42 +4’	1.53▲	4.51▼	5.06▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southend 2–1–1 Tamworth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England National League	Tamworth	2-1 HT 1-0	Southend
16/08/25 England National League	Southend	2-0 HT 1-0	Tamworth
22/02/25 England National League	Tamworth	1-1 HT 1-0	Southend
26/10/24 England National League	Southend	2-0 HT 2-0	Tamworth

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	7	5	2	0	17	9	17
2	Harrogate Town	7	5	1	1	18	10	16
3	AFC Fylde	7	4	2	1	17	10	14
4	Kidderminster	7	4	2	1	12	7	14
5	Southend	7	4	2	1	14	10	14
6	Aldershot	7	4	2	1	9	5	14
7	Forest Green	7	4	0	3	11	10	12
8	AFC Hornchurch	7	4	0	3	10	11	12
9	Sutton Utd	7	4	0	3	7	8	12
10	Yeovil	7	3	2	2	13	12	11
11	Eastleigh	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
12	Carlisle	7	2	3	2	15	12	9
13	Halifax	7	3	0	4	12	10	9
14	Hartlepool	7	3	0	4	5	6	9
15	Altrincham	7	3	0	4	8	13	9
16	Worthing	7	2	2	3	13	14	8
17	Wealdstone	7	2	2	3	10	12	8
18	Scunthorpe	7	2	1	4	10	12	7
19	Boston Utd	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
19	Woking	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
21	Barrow	7	1	3	3	10	11	6
22	Tamworth	7	1	2	4	13	19	5
23	Gateshead	7	1	1	5	5	13	4
24	Solihull Moors	7	0	1	6	7	19	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southend	Tamworth
Yeovil	3-2 W	2-3 L
Halifax	6-2 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Southend (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southend

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Yeovil England National League	0-1	3-2	9	4	W
31/08	Woking England National League	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
28/08	Kidderminster England National League	1-0	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	Solihull Moors England National League	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	1-0	11	5	W
08/08	Altrincham England National League	1-1	3-1	1	5	W
28/04	Scunthorpe England National League	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
25/04	Wealdstone England National League	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
21/04	Hartlepool England National League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
18/04	Halifax England National League	3-1	6-2	2	3	W

Tamworth

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
05/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
31/08	Yeovil England National League	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
28/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	3-2	8	9	W
22/08	Halifax England National League	0-3	1-4	7	4	L
15/08	AFC Fylde England National League	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-1	3-3	2	1	D
25/04	Braintree Town England National League	2-1	5-1	10	2	W
18/04	Eastleigh England National League	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
11/04	York England National League	0-1	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southend vs Tamworth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southend win (62%). Probabilities: Southend 62%, draw 20%, Tamworth 18%.

How many goals are expected in Southend vs Tamworth?

The model expects 3.96 goals (Southend 2.58 · Tamworth 1.38), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Southend vs Tamworth?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.