Football · England National League · 16/09, 20:45

Prediction: Altrincham vs Hartlepool

Team pages: Altrincham · Hartlepool

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Altrincham1.36

Hartlepool1.36

1X2

36% 27% 36%

Altrincham Draw Hartlepool

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Altrincham 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Hartlepool 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Altrincham 1–2–3 Hartlepool (6 last)

Hartlepool1-0Altrincham
Altrincham0-2Hartlepool
Hartlepool1-2Altrincham
Altrincham1-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool3-2Altrincham
Altrincham2-2Hartlepool

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Altrincham 1499 · Hartlepool 1472

	Altrincham	Draw	Hartlepool
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	37%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hartlepool: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Altrincham	Hartlepool
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.61
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.85 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:06 +2’	2.50	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +218’	2.30	3.65	2.80
04:17 +12’	2.20▼	3.60▼	3.00▲
08:46 +48’	2.26▲	3.60	2.89▼
09:58 +50’	2.29▲	3.61▲	2.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Altrincham 1–2–3 Hartlepool

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England National League	Hartlepool	1-0 HT 0-0	Altrincham
19/08/25 England National League	Altrincham	0-2 HT 0-2	Hartlepool
18/02/25 England National League	Hartlepool	1-2 HT 0-0	Altrincham
23/10/24 England National League	Altrincham	1-1 HT 1-1	Hartlepool
20/02/24 England National League	Hartlepool	3-2 HT 0-1	Altrincham
19/09/23 England National League	Altrincham	2-2 HT 2-1	Hartlepool

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	7	5	2	0	17	9	17
2	Harrogate Town	7	5	1	1	18	10	16
3	AFC Fylde	7	4	2	1	17	10	14
4	Kidderminster	7	4	2	1	12	7	14
5	Southend	7	4	2	1	14	10	14
6	Aldershot	7	4	2	1	9	5	14
7	Forest Green	7	4	0	3	11	10	12
8	AFC Hornchurch	7	4	0	3	10	11	12
9	Sutton Utd	7	4	0	3	7	8	12
10	Yeovil	7	3	2	2	13	12	11
11	Eastleigh	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
12	Carlisle	7	2	3	2	15	12	9
13	Halifax	7	3	0	4	12	10	9
14	Hartlepool	7	3	0	4	5	6	9
15	Altrincham	7	3	0	4	8	13	9
16	Worthing	7	2	2	3	13	14	8
17	Wealdstone	7	2	2	3	10	12	8
18	Scunthorpe	7	2	1	4	10	12	7
19	Boston Utd	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
19	Woking	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
21	Barrow	7	1	3	3	10	11	6
22	Tamworth	7	1	2	4	13	19	5
23	Gateshead	7	1	1	5	5	13	4
24	Solihull Moors	7	0	1	6	7	19	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Altrincham	Hartlepool
Woking	1-5 L	1-0 W
Eastleigh	2-1 W	0-1 L
Forest Green	2-1 W	2-1 W
Halifax	2-1 W	0-1 L
Boston Utd	0-1 L	1-3 L
Sutton Utd	0-1 L	1-2 L
Southend	1-3 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Altrincham (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Altrincham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Woking England National League	1-3	1-5	8	3	L
04/09	Eastleigh England National League	1-1	2-1	1	3	W
31/08	Forest Green England National League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
28/08	Halifax England National League	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
22/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
15/08	Sutton Utd England National League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
08/08	Southend England National League	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
25/04	Gateshead England National League	2-1	3-1	1	0	W
18/04	Sutton Utd England National League	0-1	2-1	1	6	W
11/04	Eastleigh England National League	1-0	1-0	6	1	W

Hartlepool

WWLWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
05/09	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
01/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	Sutton Utd England National League	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
15/08	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
08/08	Barrow England National League	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
25/04	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-3	3	4	L
21/04	Southend England National League	1-1	4-3	2	2	W
18/04	Forest Green England National League	2-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Altrincham vs Hartlepool?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Altrincham win (36%). Probabilities: Altrincham 36%, draw 27%, Hartlepool 36%.

How many goals are expected in Altrincham vs Hartlepool?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Altrincham 1.36 · Hartlepool 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Altrincham vs Hartlepool?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.