Football · England National League · 26/09, 16:00
Prediction: Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool
Team pages: Scunthorpe · Hartlepool
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Scunthorpe1.51
Hartlepool1.18
1X2
Scunthorpe
Draw
Hartlepool
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Scunthorpe
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Hartlepool
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Scunthorpe
2–3–1
Hartlepool
(6 last)
- Scunthorpe0-0Hartlepool
- Hartlepool1-2Scunthorpe
- Hartlepool2-1Scunthorpe
- Scunthorpe1-1Hartlepool
- Hartlepool0-0Scunthorpe
- Hartlepool0-1Scunthorpe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Scunthorpe 1482 · Hartlepool 1412
| Scunthorpe | Draw | Hartlepool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Scunthorpe (rating 1482 vs 1412).
- H2H favours Scunthorpe: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Scunthorpe | Hartlepool | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.7 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.8 | 2.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Scunthorpe 2–3–1 Hartlepool
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 England National League | Scunthorpe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hartlepool |
| 26/12/25 England National League | Hartlepool | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Scunthorpe |
| 30/07/24 Club Friendly List | Hartlepool | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Scunthorpe |
| 30/04/22 England League 2 | Scunthorpe | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Hartlepool |
| 11/12/21 England League 2 | Hartlepool | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Scunthorpe |
| 30/07/16 Club Friendly List | Hartlepool | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Scunthorpe |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 11 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Kidderminster | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 16 |
| 6 | Sutton Utd | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | Yeovil | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Aldershot | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| 10 | Altrincham | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 11 | Worthing | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| 13 | Halifax | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 14 | Forest Green | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| 15 | Boston Utd | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 16 | Carlisle | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
| 17 | Barrow | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| 18 | Woking | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 8 |
| 21 | Tamworth | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 8 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 7 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 4 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Scunthorpe | Hartlepool |
|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Eastleigh | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Scunthorpe (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Scunthorpe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/09 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Sutton Utd England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Harrogate Town England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 31/08 | Carlisle England National League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Solihull Moors England National League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Southend England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Yeovil England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Rochdale England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
Hartlepool
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Worthing England National League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/09 | Altrincham England National League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Kidderminster England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Woking England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Halifax England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Sutton Utd England National League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Aldershot England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Barrow England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Boston Utd England National League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Scunthorpe win (44%). Probabilities: Scunthorpe 44%, draw 27%, Hartlepool 29%.
How many goals are expected in Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Scunthorpe 1.51 · Hartlepool 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.