Football · England National League · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Wealdstone vs Gateshead

Team pages: Wealdstone · Gateshead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Wealdstone1.82

Gateshead1.09

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Wealdstone Draw Gateshead

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wealdstone 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLDWLWLL

Gateshead 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Wealdstone 0–1–5 Gateshead (6 last)

Gateshead1-0Wealdstone
Wealdstone2-2Gateshead
Wealdstone0-4Gateshead
Gateshead1-0Wealdstone
Wealdstone2-4Gateshead
Gateshead2-1Wealdstone

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wealdstone 1458 · Gateshead 1408

	Wealdstone	Draw	Gateshead
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wealdstone (rating 1458 vs 1408).
H2H favours Gateshead: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wealdstone	Gateshead
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	0.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.80

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.90
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.70 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:56 +11’	1.67	3.80	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +532’	1.66	3.90	4.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wealdstone 0–1–5 Gateshead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 England National League	Gateshead	1-0 HT 1-0	Wealdstone
13/09/25 England National League	Wealdstone	2-2 HT 1-1	Gateshead
08/02/25 England National League	Wealdstone	0-4 HT 0-2	Gateshead
05/10/24 England National League	Gateshead	1-0 HT 0-0	Wealdstone
17/02/24 England National League	Wealdstone	2-4 HT 1-3	Gateshead
03/10/23 England National League	Gateshead	2-1 HT 0-0	Wealdstone

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	9	7	2	0	23	11	23
2	Southend	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Kidderminster	9	5	3	1	13	7	18
4	AFC Fylde	9	5	2	2	20	13	17
5	Harrogate Town	9	5	1	3	20	16	16
6	Sutton Utd	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
7	Yeovil	9	4	3	2	18	14	15
8	Aldershot	9	4	3	2	10	7	15
9	AFC Hornchurch	9	5	0	4	11	12	15
10	Altrincham	9	5	0	4	12	15	15
11	Worthing	9	4	2	3	17	15	14
12	Eastleigh	9	4	2	3	11	10	14
13	Halifax	9	4	1	4	14	11	13
14	Forest Green	9	4	1	4	13	14	13
15	Boston Utd	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
16	Carlisle	9	2	4	3	16	14	10
17	Barrow	9	2	3	4	11	12	9
18	Woking	9	2	3	4	10	12	9
19	Hartlepool	9	3	0	6	7	11	9
20	Wealdstone	9	2	2	5	11	15	8
21	Tamworth	9	2	2	5	16	23	8
22	Scunthorpe	9	2	1	6	11	15	7
23	Solihull Moors	9	1	1	7	9	23	4
24	Gateshead	9	1	1	7	6	20	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wealdstone	Gateshead
Kidderminster	1-4 L	0-1 L
Sutton Utd	2-0 W	0-1 L
Harrogate Town	1-3 L	1-2 L
Southend	1-2 L	1-6 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wealdstone

LDLLDWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Tamworth England National League	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
15/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
12/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
05/09	Kidderminster England National League	1-1	1-4	10	6	L
31/08	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
28/08	Carlisle England National League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
22/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/08	Harrogate Town England National League	1-1	1-3	5	0	L
08/08	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
25/04	Southend England National League	1-2	1-2	5	3	L

Gateshead

LLWLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Southend England National League	0-6	1-6	4	2	L
16/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
12/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
05/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
31/08	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	1-2	1	1	L
28/08	Sutton Utd England National League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
22/08	Yeovil England National League	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
15/08	Woking England National League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
08/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
25/04	Altrincham England National League	1-2	1-3	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wealdstone vs Gateshead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wealdstone win (54%). Probabilities: Wealdstone 54%, draw 24%, Gateshead 22%.

How many goals are expected in Wealdstone vs Gateshead?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Wealdstone 1.82 · Gateshead 1.09), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wealdstone vs Gateshead?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.