Football · England National League · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Aldershot vs Tamworth

Team pages: Aldershot · Tamworth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Aldershot1.64

Tamworth1.45

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Aldershot Draw Tamworth

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Aldershot 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDWWDL

Tamworth 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Aldershot 0–2–2 Tamworth (4 last)

Tamworth1-1Aldershot
Aldershot1-2Tamworth
Aldershot2-2Tamworth
Tamworth3-2Aldershot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aldershot 1495 · Tamworth 1481

	Aldershot	Draw	Tamworth
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tamworth: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aldershot	Tamworth
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	2.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.46 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.72
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:04 +5’	2.20	3.60	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +534’	2.23	3.74	2.85
04:18 +70’	2.46▲	3.72▼	2.57▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aldershot 0–2–2 Tamworth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England National League	Tamworth	1-1 HT 0-0	Aldershot
18/10/25 England National League	Aldershot	1-2 HT 1-1	Tamworth
25/01/25 England National League	Aldershot	2-2 HT 0-0	Tamworth
26/08/24 England National League	Tamworth	3-2 HT 1-1	Aldershot

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	9	7	2	0	23	11	23
2	Southend	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Kidderminster	9	5	3	1	13	7	18
4	AFC Fylde	9	5	2	2	20	13	17
5	Harrogate Town	9	5	1	3	20	16	16
6	Sutton Utd	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
7	Yeovil	9	4	3	2	18	14	15
8	Aldershot	9	4	3	2	10	7	15
9	AFC Hornchurch	9	5	0	4	11	12	15
10	Altrincham	9	5	0	4	12	15	15
11	Worthing	9	4	2	3	17	15	14
12	Eastleigh	9	4	2	3	11	10	14
13	Halifax	9	4	1	4	14	11	13
14	Forest Green	9	4	1	4	13	14	13
15	Boston Utd	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
16	Carlisle	9	2	4	3	16	14	10
17	Barrow	9	2	3	4	11	12	9
18	Woking	9	2	3	4	10	12	9
19	Hartlepool	9	3	0	6	7	11	9
20	Wealdstone	9	2	2	5	11	15	8
21	Tamworth	9	2	2	5	16	23	8
22	Scunthorpe	9	2	1	6	11	15	7
23	Solihull Moors	9	1	1	7	9	23	4
24	Gateshead	9	1	1	7	6	20	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aldershot	Tamworth
Yeovil	1-1 D	2-3 L
Halifax	1-0 W	1-4 L
Harrogate Town	3-1 W	1-3 L
Boston Utd	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Aldershot (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aldershot

LWLDWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
15/09	Yeovil England National League	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
05/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
28/08	Harrogate Town England National League	3-0	3-1	7	4	W
22/08	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	1-1	2	9	D
15/08	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
08/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
25/04	Truro City England National League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L

Tamworth

WDLLWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
15/09	Southend England National League	0-0	1-3	2	1	L
12/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
05/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
31/08	Yeovil England National League	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
28/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	3-2	8	9	W
22/08	Halifax England National League	0-3	1-4	7	4	L
15/08	AFC Fylde England National League	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-1	3-3	2	1	D
25/04	Braintree Town England National League	2-1	5-1	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aldershot vs Tamworth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aldershot win (41%). Probabilities: Aldershot 41%, draw 26%, Tamworth 33%.

How many goals are expected in Aldershot vs Tamworth?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Aldershot 1.64 · Tamworth 1.45), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Aldershot vs Tamworth?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.