Football · England National League · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd

Team pages: Harrogate Town · Sutton Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Harrogate Town1.79

Sutton Utd1.02

1X2

55% 25% 21%

Harrogate Town Draw Sutton Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Harrogate Town 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWWWW

Sutton Utd 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDDLDL

Head-to-head

Harrogate Town 1–1–4 Sutton Utd (6 last)

Harrogate Town2-2Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd1-2Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town0-1Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd2-1Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town0-2Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd1-0Harrogate Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harrogate Town 1546 · Sutton Utd 1481

	Harrogate Town	Draw	Sutton Utd
Our model	54%	25%	20%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harrogate Town (rating 1546 vs 1481).
H2H favours Sutton Utd: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harrogate Town	Sutton Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

24.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.73 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.40 → 4.40	Pinn 4.49

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +8’	1.67	3.75	4.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +605’	1.73	3.69	4.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Harrogate Town 1–1–4 Sutton Utd

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/24 England League 2	Harrogate Town	2-2 HT 0-1	Sutton Utd
30/01/24 England League 2	Sutton Utd	1-2 HT 0-0	Harrogate Town
28/01/23 England League 2	Harrogate Town	0-1 HT 0-1	Sutton Utd
03/09/22 England League 2	Sutton Utd	2-1 HT 1-1	Harrogate Town
07/05/22 England League 2	Harrogate Town	0-2 HT 0-1	Sutton Utd
25/01/22 England EFL Trophy	Sutton Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Harrogate Town

Standings · England National League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	13	11	2	0	34	13	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	9	1	3	29	17	28
3	Southend	13	8	3	2	31	19	27
4	Yeovil	13	7	4	2	32	15	25
5	Worthing	13	7	3	3	27	18	24
6	Altrincham	13	8	0	5	20	19	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
8	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	7	0	6	15	19	21
10	Halifax	13	6	2	5	22	15	20
11	Kidderminster	13	5	5	3	15	12	20
12	Aldershot	13	5	3	5	18	16	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	5	3	5	14	18	18
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23	20	17
15	Woking	13	4	3	6	20	20	15
16	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
17	Eastleigh	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
18	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
19	Wealdstone	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12	19	12
21	Boston Utd	13	3	3	7	15	23	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	3	1	8	15	21	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	2	1	10	13	35	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harrogate Town	Sutton Utd
Eastleigh	4-1 W	2-1 W
Boreham Wood	1-4 L	0-2 L
Tamworth	3-1 W	0-2 L
Scunthorpe	2-0 W	0-2 L
Gateshead	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Harrogate Town (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harrogate Town

LWWWLLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Woking England National League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
03/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
29/09	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/09	Eastleigh England National League	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
19/09	Boreham Wood England National League	1-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
12/09	Tamworth England National League	2-1	3-1	10	7	W
05/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
31/08	Gateshead England National League	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
28/08	Aldershot England National League	0-3	1-3	5	4	L

Sutton Utd

WLLLWDDLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
03/10	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
30/09	Tamworth England National League	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
26/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	3-3	7	7	D
19/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
15/09	Eastleigh England National League	2-0	2-1	7	7	W
12/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
05/09	Barrow England National League	0-1	0-3	6	10	L
31/08	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
28/08	Gateshead England National League	0-0	1-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harrogate Town win (55%). Probabilities: Harrogate Town 55%, draw 25%, Sutton Utd 21%.

How many goals are expected in Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Harrogate Town 1.79 · Sutton Utd 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Sutton Utd?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.