Football · England National League · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Barrow vs Eastleigh

Team pages: Barrow · Eastleigh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Barrow1.92

Eastleigh1.13

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Barrow Draw Eastleigh

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Barrow 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWWWWW

Eastleigh 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Barrow 4–2 Eastleigh (6 last)

Barrow2-0Eastleigh
Eastleigh0-1Barrow
Barrow0-3Eastleigh
Barrow3-2Eastleigh
Eastleigh0-2Barrow
Eastleigh2-0Barrow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barrow 1572 · Eastleigh 1460

	Barrow	Draw	Eastleigh
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barrow (rating 1572 vs 1460).
H2H favours Barrow: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barrow	Eastleigh
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	1.5 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +10’	1.67	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Barrow 4–0–2 Eastleigh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/19 England National League	Barrow	2-0 HT 0-0	Eastleigh
16/03/19 England National League	Eastleigh	0-1 HT 0-1	Barrow
17/11/18 England National League	Barrow	0-3 HT 0-2	Eastleigh
10/04/18 England National League	Barrow	3-2 HT 1-0	Eastleigh
18/11/17 England National League	Eastleigh	0-2 HT 0-1	Barrow
11/03/17 England National League	Eastleigh	2-0 HT 1-0	Barrow

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	27
6	Yeovil	14	7	4	3	33	17	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	23
8	Halifax	14	6	3	5	24	17	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	20
12	Kidderminster	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	18
14	Aldershot	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
21	Boston Utd	14	3	3	8	17	27	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barrow	Eastleigh
Southend	4-2 W	1-1 D
Aldershot	1-0 W	1-1 D
Sutton Utd	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Barrow (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barrow

LDWDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Tamworth England National League	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	2-1	11	9	W
29/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
26/09	Southend England National League	0-0	4-2	6	6	W
19/09	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
15/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
12/09	Worthing England National League	2-0	2-2	8	6	D
05/09	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	3-0	5	10	W
31/08	Kidderminster England National League	1-1	1-1	8	8	D
28/08	Yeovil England National League	0-0	1-2	9	4	L

Eastleigh

DLDLWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Boston Utd England National League	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
10/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
03/10	Woking England National League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
30/09	Southend England National League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
26/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
19/09	Carlisle England National League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/09	Sutton Utd England National League	0-2	1-2	1	7	L
12/09	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
04/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
31/08	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barrow vs Eastleigh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barrow win (55%). Probabilities: Barrow 55%, draw 24%, Eastleigh 21%.

How many goals are expected in Barrow vs Eastleigh?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Barrow 1.92 · Eastleigh 1.13), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Barrow vs Eastleigh?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.