Football · England National League · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Worthing vs Sutton Utd

Team pages: Worthing · Sutton Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Worthing1.83

Sutton Utd1.14

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Worthing Draw Sutton Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Worthing 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWDWWW

Sutton Utd 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDLDLL

Head-to-head

Worthing 0–2–0 Sutton Utd (2 last)

Sutton Utd2-2Worthing
Worthing2-2Sutton Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worthing 1522 · Sutton Utd 1477

	Worthing	Draw	Sutton Utd
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Worthing (rating 1522 vs 1477).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worthing	Sutton Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.2	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +11’	1.73	3.80	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Worthing 0–2–0 Sutton Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/17 England FA Trophy	Sutton Utd	2-2 HT 1-0	Worthing
14/01/17 England FA Trophy	Worthing	2-2	Sutton Utd

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	27
6	Yeovil	14	7	4	3	33	17	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	23
8	Halifax	14	6	3	5	24	17	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	20
12	Kidderminster	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	18
14	Aldershot	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
21	Boston Utd	14	3	3	8	17	27	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worthing	Sutton Utd
Kidderminster	2-1 W	1-1 D
Halifax	2-1 W	1-1 D
Barrow	2-2 D	0-3 L
Boreham Wood	2-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Worthing (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worthing

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/10	Solihull Moors England National League	3-0	5-0	4	1	W
03/10	Gateshead England National League	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
29/09	Yeovil England National League	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
26/09	Halifax England National League	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
19/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
15/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/09	Barrow England National League	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
05/09	AFC Fylde England National League	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
31/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	2-3	6	4	L

Sutton Utd

LLLWDDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Harrogate Town England National League	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
09/10	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
03/10	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
30/09	Tamworth England National League	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
26/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	3-3	7	7	D
19/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
15/09	Eastleigh England National League	2-0	2-1	7	7	W
12/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
05/09	Barrow England National League	0-1	0-3	6	10	L
31/08	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worthing vs Sutton Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Worthing win (53%). Probabilities: Worthing 53%, draw 24%, Sutton Utd 23%.

How many goals are expected in Worthing vs Sutton Utd?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Worthing 1.83 · Sutton Utd 1.14), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Worthing vs Sutton Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.