Football · England National League · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Barrow vs Forest Green

Team pages: Barrow · Forest Green

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Barrow1.64

Forest Green1.29

1X2

45% 26% 30%

Barrow Draw Forest Green

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Barrow 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWWWWW

Forest Green 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDLDDL

Head-to-head

Barrow 3–1–2 Forest Green (6 last)

Barrow1-2Forest Green
Forest Green0-2Barrow
Barrow4-0Forest Green
Forest Green2-0Barrow
Forest Green0-2Barrow
Barrow2-2Forest Green

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barrow 1557 · Forest Green 1449

	Barrow	Draw	Forest Green
Our model	44%	26%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barrow (rating 1557 vs 1449).
H2H favours Barrow: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barrow	Forest Green
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.19 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +4’	2.05	3.70	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +491’	2.19	3.59	3.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Barrow 3–1–2 Forest Green

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/24 England League 2	Barrow	1-2 HT 1-1	Forest Green
24/10/23 England League 2	Forest Green	0-2 HT 0-2	Barrow
15/04/22 England League 2	Barrow	4-0 HT 2-0	Forest Green
23/11/21 England League 2	Forest Green	2-0 HT 0-0	Barrow
27/04/21 England League 2	Forest Green	0-2 HT 0-2	Barrow
21/11/20 England League 2	Barrow	2-2 HT 0-0	Forest Green

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	13	11	2	0	34	13	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	9	1	3	29	17	28
3	Southend	13	8	3	2	31	19	27
4	Yeovil	13	7	4	2	32	15	25
5	Worthing	13	7	3	3	27	18	24
6	Altrincham	13	8	0	5	20	19	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
8	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	7	0	6	15	19	21
10	Halifax	13	6	2	5	22	15	20
11	Kidderminster	13	5	5	3	15	12	20
12	Aldershot	13	5	3	5	18	16	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	5	3	5	14	18	18
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23	20	17
15	Woking	13	4	3	6	20	20	15
16	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
17	Eastleigh	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
18	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
19	Wealdstone	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12	19	12
21	Boston Utd	13	3	3	7	15	23	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	3	1	8	15	21	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	2	1	10	13	35	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barrow	Forest Green
Wealdstone	2-1 W	1-1 D
Sutton Utd	3-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Barrow (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barrow

LDWDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Tamworth England National League	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	2-1	11	9	W
29/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
26/09	Southend England National League	0-0	4-2	6	6	W
19/09	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
15/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
12/09	Worthing England National League	2-0	2-2	8	6	D
05/09	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	3-0	5	10	W
31/08	Kidderminster England National League	1-1	1-1	8	8	D
28/08	Yeovil England National League	0-0	1-2	9	4	L

Forest Green

LLLWWDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Hartlepool England National League	0-1	2-4	9	5	L
29/09	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
26/09	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	3-3	1	7	D
19/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	1-3	9	4	L
15/09	Carlisle England National League	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/09	Gateshead England National League	1-0	4-0	5	6	W
05/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
31/08	Altrincham England National League	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
28/08	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
22/08	Boreham Wood England National League	0-2	0-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barrow vs Forest Green?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barrow win (45%). Probabilities: Barrow 45%, draw 26%, Forest Green 30%.

How many goals are expected in Barrow vs Forest Green?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Barrow 1.64 · Forest Green 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Barrow vs Forest Green?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.