Football · England National League · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Boreham Wood vs AFC Fylde

Team pages: Boreham Wood · AFC Fylde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Boreham Wood2.4

AFC Fylde0.91

1X2

70% 18% 12%

Boreham Wood Draw AFC Fylde

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Boreham Wood 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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AFC Fylde 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Boreham Wood 2–2–2 AFC Fylde (6 last)

Boreham Wood4-0AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde2-2Boreham Wood
AFC Fylde1-2Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood0-2AFC Fylde
Boreham Wood1-1AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde2-1Boreham Wood

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boreham Wood 1634 · AFC Fylde 1544

	Boreham Wood	Draw	AFC Fylde
Our model	69%	19%	12%
Market	70%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boreham Wood (rating 1634 vs 1544).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boreham Wood	AFC Fylde
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.1	2.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.36
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.44 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +16’	1.30	5.00	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +490’	1.37	5.38	6.28
01:40 +52’	1.36▼	5.44▲	6.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boreham Wood 2–2–2 AFC Fylde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/24 England National League	Boreham Wood	4-0 HT 3-0	AFC Fylde
26/09/23 England National League	AFC Fylde	2-2 HT 1-1	Boreham Wood
01/02/20 England National League	AFC Fylde	1-2 HT 1-1	Boreham Wood
26/10/19 England National League	Boreham Wood	0-2 HT 0-1	AFC Fylde
09/03/19 England National League	Boreham Wood	1-1 HT 0-1	AFC Fylde
24/11/18 England National League	AFC Fylde	2-1 HT 0-0	Boreham Wood

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	13	11	2	0	34	13	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	9	1	3	29	17	28
3	Southend	13	8	3	2	31	19	27
4	Yeovil	13	7	4	2	32	15	25
5	Worthing	13	7	3	3	27	18	24
6	Altrincham	13	8	0	5	20	19	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
8	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	7	0	6	15	19	21
10	Halifax	13	6	2	5	22	15	20
11	Kidderminster	13	5	5	3	15	12	20
12	Aldershot	13	5	3	5	18	16	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	5	3	5	14	18	18
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23	20	17
15	Woking	13	4	3	6	20	20	15
16	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
17	Eastleigh	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
18	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
19	Wealdstone	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12	19	12
21	Boston Utd	13	3	3	7	15	23	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	3	1	8	15	21	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	2	1	10	13	35	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boreham Wood	AFC Fylde
Altrincham	3-1 W	1-2 L
Solihull Moors	3-0 W	3-1 W
Harrogate Town	4-1 W	2-1 W
Scunthorpe	2-1 W	2-0 W
Carlisle	2-1 W	0-2 L
Worthing	3-2 W	2-2 D
Boston Utd	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Boreham Wood (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boreham Wood

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Sutton Utd England National League	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/10	Altrincham England National League	0-1	3-1	4	7	W
29/09	Kidderminster England National League	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
26/09	Solihull Moors England National League	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
19/09	Harrogate Town England National League	2-1	4-1	4	7	W
16/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	2-1	10	3	W
12/09	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	Carlisle England National League	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
31/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
27/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-1	2-1	7	5	W

AFC Fylde

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
03/10	Southend England National League	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
29/09	Carlisle England National League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
26/09	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-0	14	5	W
19/09	Altrincham England National League	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
15/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Yeovil England National League	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
05/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
31/08	Solihull Moors England National League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
28/08	Forest Green England National League	0-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boreham Wood vs AFC Fylde?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boreham Wood win (70%). Probabilities: Boreham Wood 70%, draw 18%, AFC Fylde 12%.

How many goals are expected in Boreham Wood vs AFC Fylde?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Boreham Wood 2.4 · AFC Fylde 0.91), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Boreham Wood vs AFC Fylde?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.