Football · England National League · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: AFC Fylde vs Hartlepool

Team pages: AFC Fylde · Hartlepool

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

AFC Fylde1.92

Hartlepool1.19

1X2

54% 23% 23%

AFC Fylde Draw Hartlepool

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Fylde 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWLLWL

Hartlepool 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLWW

Head-to-head

AFC Fylde 3–1–2 Hartlepool (6 last)

AFC Fylde2-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool2-0AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde2-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool3-1AFC Fylde
Hartlepool2-2AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde4-2Hartlepool

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Fylde 1529 · Hartlepool 1431

	AFC Fylde	Draw	Hartlepool
Our model	53%	24%	22%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Fylde (rating 1529 vs 1431).
H2H favours AFC Fylde: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Fylde	Hartlepool
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.9	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.67▲	Pinn 1.69
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.10
2	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.23 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:38 +14’	1.65	4.10	4.00
03:06 +17’	1.67▲	4.00▼	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +157’	1.63	4.21	4.54
03:16 +7’	1.69▲	4.10▼	4.23▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Fylde 3–1–2 Hartlepool

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/25 England National League	AFC Fylde	2-1 HT 2-1	Hartlepool
26/11/24 England National League	Hartlepool	2-0 HT 0-0	AFC Fylde
09/01/24 England National League	AFC Fylde	2-1 HT 2-0	Hartlepool
26/08/23 England National League	Hartlepool	3-1 HT 2-1	AFC Fylde
13/08/19 England National League	Hartlepool	2-2 HT 1-0	AFC Fylde
12/03/19 England National League	AFC Fylde	4-2 HT 1-0	Hartlepool

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	27
6	Yeovil	14	7	4	3	33	17	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	23
8	Halifax	14	6	3	5	24	17	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	20
12	Kidderminster	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	18
14	Aldershot	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
21	Boston Utd	14	3	3	8	17	27	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Fylde	Hartlepool
Scunthorpe	2-0 W	1-4 L
Altrincham	1-2 L	1-2 L
Harrogate Town	2-1 W	0-1 L
Worthing	2-2 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Fylde (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Fylde

WDWWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Boreham Wood England National League	0-3	0-4	1	3	L
10/10	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
03/10	Southend England National League	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
29/09	Carlisle England National League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
26/09	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-0	14	5	W
19/09	Altrincham England National League	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
15/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Yeovil England National League	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
05/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
31/08	Solihull Moors England National League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W

Hartlepool

LWLLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
10/10	Forest Green England National League	1-0	4-2	5	5	W
03/10	Tamworth England National League	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
29/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
26/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
19/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
16/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
11/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
05/09	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
01/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Fylde vs Hartlepool?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Fylde win (54%). Probabilities: AFC Fylde 54%, draw 23%, Hartlepool 23%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Fylde vs Hartlepool?

The model expects 3.11 goals (AFC Fylde 1.92 · Hartlepool 1.19), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Fylde vs Hartlepool?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.