Football · England National League · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Altrincham vs Kidderminster

Team pages: Altrincham · Kidderminster

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Altrincham1.6

Kidderminster1.1

1X2

48% 26% 25%

Altrincham Draw Kidderminster

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Altrincham 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLWW

Kidderminster 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLLDDL

Head-to-head

Altrincham 2–3–1 Kidderminster (6 last)

Kidderminster1-3Altrincham
Kidderminster0-0Altrincham
Altrincham1-1Kidderminster
Altrincham1-1Kidderminster
Kidderminster2-0Altrincham
Altrincham2-1Kidderminster

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Altrincham 1590 · Kidderminster 1504

	Altrincham	Draw	Kidderminster
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Altrincham (rating 1590 vs 1504).
H2H favours Altrincham: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Altrincham	Kidderminster
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.9	1.7 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.90▼	Pinn 1.92
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.72 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +12’	2.05	3.50	3.20
11:15 +4’	1.90▼	3.60▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +7’	2.01	3.54	3.47
00:38 +51’	2.05▲	3.49▼	3.40▼
03:04 +18’	1.92▼	3.58▲	3.72▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Altrincham 2–3–1 Kidderminster

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/24 England National League	Kidderminster	1-3 HT 1-1	Altrincham
13/01/24 England FA Trophy	Kidderminster	0-0 HT 0-0	Altrincham
24/10/23 England National League	Altrincham	1-1 HT 1-1	Kidderminster
21/12/19 England National League North	Altrincham	1-1 HT 0-1	Kidderminster
14/09/19 England National League North	Kidderminster	2-0 HT 1-0	Altrincham
30/03/19 England National League North	Altrincham	2-1 HT 2-1	Kidderminster

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	27
6	Yeovil	14	7	4	3	33	17	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	23
8	Halifax	14	6	3	5	24	17	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	20
12	Kidderminster	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	18
14	Aldershot	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
21	Boston Utd	14	3	3	8	17	27	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Altrincham	Kidderminster
Yeovil	2-1 W	0-1 L
Boreham Wood	1-3 L	1-3 L
Gateshead	1-0 W	1-0 W
Hartlepool	2-1 W	2-0 W
Woking	1-5 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kidderminster (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Altrincham

WWLWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Yeovil England National League	0-1	2-1	10	8	W
10/10	Aldershot England National League	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
03/10	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	1-3	2	7	L
29/09	Gateshead England National League	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
19/09	AFC Fylde England National League	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
16/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
12/09	Woking England National League	1-3	1-5	8	3	L
04/09	Eastleigh England National League	1-1	2-1	1	3	W
31/08	Forest Green England National League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W

Kidderminster

DWWWDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Worthing England National League	1-0	1-2	12	3	L
10/10	Carlisle England National League	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
03/10	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	1-1	0	2	D
29/09	Boreham Wood England National League	0-2	1-3	0	4	L
26/09	Yeovil England National League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/09	Woking England National League	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
16/09	Gateshead England National League	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
11/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
05/09	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	4-1	0	6	W
31/08	Barrow England National League	1-1	1-1	2	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Altrincham vs Kidderminster?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Altrincham win (48%). Probabilities: Altrincham 48%, draw 26%, Kidderminster 25%.

How many goals are expected in Altrincham vs Kidderminster?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Altrincham 1.6 · Kidderminster 1.1), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Altrincham vs Kidderminster?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.