Football · England National League · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Boston Utd vs Gateshead

Team pages: Boston Utd · Gateshead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Boston Utd2.02

Gateshead1.04

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Boston Utd Draw Gateshead

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Boston Utd 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLDLLL

Gateshead 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Boston Utd 4–2 Gateshead (6 last)

Boston Utd1-0Gateshead
Gateshead1-3Boston Utd
Boston Utd2-1Gateshead
Gateshead1-3Boston Utd
Gateshead2-0Boston Utd
Boston Utd1-2Gateshead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boston Utd 1410 · Gateshead 1367

	Boston Utd	Draw	Gateshead
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boston Utd (rating 1410 vs 1367).
H2H favours Boston Utd: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boston Utd	Gateshead
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	0.5 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.6	0.8 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.53▲	Pinn 1.54
X	4.20 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	5.50 → 5.00▼	Pinn 6.07 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:38 +13’	1.48	4.20	5.50
04:14 +2’	1.53▲	4.00▼	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +8’	1.42	4.54	6.06
14:43 +308’	1.51▲	3.90▼	6.37▲
02:51 +91’	1.54▲	3.82▼	6.07▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Boston Utd 4–0–2 Gateshead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/26 England National League	Boston Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Gateshead
04/10/25 England National League	Gateshead	1-3 HT 1-1	Boston Utd
26/04/25 England National League	Boston Utd	2-1 HT 2-1	Gateshead
04/01/25 England FA Trophy	Gateshead	1-3	Boston Utd
24/09/24 England National League	Gateshead	2-0 HT 2-0	Boston Utd
19/03/22 England National League North	Boston Utd	1-2 HT 1-1	Gateshead

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	27
6	Yeovil	14	7	4	3	33	17	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	23
8	Halifax	14	6	3	5	24	17	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	20
12	Kidderminster	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	18
14	Aldershot	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
21	Boston Utd	14	3	3	8	17	27	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boston Utd	Gateshead
Southend	1-2 L	1-6 L
Halifax	1-1 D	1-4 L
Forest Green	3-1 W	0-4 L
Wealdstone	1-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Boston Utd (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boston Utd

LDLDWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Eastleigh England National League	2-2	2-4	5	3	L
10/10	Southend England National League	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
03/10	Yeovil England National League	0-4	0-6	7	5	L
29/09	Halifax England National League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
19/09	Forest Green England National League	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
15/09	Woking England National League	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
12/09	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
05/09	Tamworth England National League	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
31/08	AFC Hornchurch England National League	2-1	2-3	10	2	L

Gateshead

LLDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Halifax England National League	1-0	1-4	1	1	L
03/10	Worthing England National League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
29/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
26/09	Wealdstone England National League	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
19/09	Southend England National League	0-6	1-6	4	2	L
16/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
12/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
05/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
31/08	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	1-2	1	1	L
28/08	Sutton Utd England National League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boston Utd vs Gateshead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boston Utd win (59%). Probabilities: Boston Utd 59%, draw 23%, Gateshead 18%.

How many goals are expected in Boston Utd vs Gateshead?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Boston Utd 2.02 · Gateshead 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Boston Utd vs Gateshead?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.