Football · England National League · 27/10, 20:45
Prediction: Tamworth vs Scunthorpe
Team pages: Tamworth · Scunthorpe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.58Total
Tamworth1.91
Scunthorpe1.67
1X2
Tamworth
Draw
Scunthorpe
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Tamworth
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Scunthorpe
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tamworth
1–3
Scunthorpe
(4 last)
- Scunthorpe3-1Tamworth
- Tamworth1-2Scunthorpe
- Scunthorpe0-1Tamworth
- Tamworth1-2Scunthorpe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tamworth 1475 · Scunthorpe 1479
| Tamworth | Draw | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Scunthorpe: 3-0-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tamworth | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.1 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.6 | 2.7 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tamworth 1–0–3 Scunthorpe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 England National League | Scunthorpe | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Tamworth |
| 09/08/25 England National League | Tamworth | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Scunthorpe |
| 30/01/24 England National League North | Scunthorpe | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tamworth |
| 05/08/23 England National League North | Tamworth | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Scunthorpe |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 38 | 13 | 38 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 21 | 28 |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 27 |
| 6 | Yeovil | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 25 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 23 |
| 8 | Halifax | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 21 |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 21 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 20 |
| 12 | Kidderminster | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 20 |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 18 |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 18 |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 15 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 15 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 15 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 30 | 14 |
| 21 | Boston Utd | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 31 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tamworth | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Hartlepool | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Sutton Utd | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Harrogate Town | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tamworth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Barrow England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Hartlepool England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/09 | Sutton Utd England National League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Aldershot England National League |
0-4 | 1-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 15/09 | Southend England National League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/09 | Harrogate Town England National League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Boston Utd England National League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 31/08 | Yeovil England National League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 28/08 | Worthing England National League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 9 | W |
Scunthorpe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Woking England National League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | AFC Fylde England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 29/09 | Barrow England National League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/09 | Hartlepool England National League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/09 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Sutton Utd England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Harrogate Town England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 31/08 | Carlisle England National League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Solihull Moors England National League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tamworth vs Scunthorpe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tamworth win (43%). Probabilities: Tamworth 43%, draw 24%, Scunthorpe 33%.
How many goals are expected in Tamworth vs Scunthorpe?
The model expects 3.58 goals (Tamworth 1.91 · Scunthorpe 1.67), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tamworth vs Scunthorpe?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.