Football · England National League · 28/10, 20:45
Prediction: Sutton Utd vs Aldershot
Team pages: Sutton Utd · Aldershot
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Sutton Utd1.64
Aldershot1.07
1X2
Sutton Utd
Draw
Aldershot
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sutton Utd
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Aldershot
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sutton Utd
0–4–2
Aldershot
(6 last)
- Aldershot2-2Sutton Utd
- Sutton Utd0-0Aldershot
- Aldershot1-1Sutton Utd
- Sutton Utd1-1Aldershot
- Sutton Utd0-1Aldershot
- Sutton Utd1-2Aldershot
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sutton Utd 1478 · Aldershot 1500
| Sutton Utd | Draw | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Aldershot: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sutton Utd | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.1 | 1.3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutton Utd 0–4–2 Aldershot
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 England National League | Aldershot | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Sutton Utd |
| 26/12/25 England National League | Sutton Utd | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Aldershot |
| 18/04/25 England National League | Aldershot | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sutton Utd |
| 01/01/25 England National League | Sutton Utd | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Aldershot |
| 29/07/23 Club Friendly List | Sutton Utd | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Aldershot |
| 24/07/21 Club Friendly List | Sutton Utd | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Aldershot |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 38 | 13 | 38 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 21 | 28 |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 27 |
| 6 | Yeovil | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 25 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 23 |
| 8 | Halifax | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 21 |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 21 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 20 |
| 12 | Kidderminster | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 20 |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 18 |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 18 |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 15 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 15 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 15 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 30 | 14 |
| 21 | Boston Utd | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 31 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sutton Utd | Aldershot |
|---|---|---|
| Tamworth | 0-2 L | 5-1 W |
| Halifax | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Eastleigh | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Barrow | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Wealdstone | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Aldershot (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sutton Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Harrogate Town England National League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/10 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | Kidderminster England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 30/09 | Tamworth England National League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/09 | Forest Green England National League |
0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Halifax England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 15/09 | Eastleigh England National League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Barrow England National League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 31/08 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Aldershot
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | Altrincham England National League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Carlisle England National League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/09 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Tamworth England National League |
4-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Barrow England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 15/09 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Solihull Moors England National League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Halifax England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sutton Utd vs Aldershot?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sutton Utd win (50%). Probabilities: Sutton Utd 50%, draw 26%, Aldershot 24%.
How many goals are expected in Sutton Utd vs Aldershot?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Sutton Utd 1.64 · Aldershot 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Aldershot?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.