Football · England National League · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Aldershot vs Gateshead

Team pages: Aldershot · Gateshead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Aldershot1.96

Gateshead0.95

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Aldershot Draw Gateshead

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Aldershot 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWLLLL

Gateshead 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Aldershot 2–3–1 Gateshead (6 last)

Aldershot0-1Gateshead
Gateshead3-3Aldershot
Aldershot3-1Gateshead
Gateshead2-2Aldershot
Gateshead0-1Aldershot
Aldershot1-1Gateshead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aldershot 1490 · Gateshead 1376

	Aldershot	Draw	Gateshead
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aldershot (rating 1490 vs 1376).
H2H favours Aldershot: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aldershot	Gateshead
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	0.5 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.5	0.8 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +14’	1.50	4.10	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aldershot 2–3–1 Gateshead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England National League	Aldershot	0-1 HT 0-1	Gateshead
30/08/25 England National League	Gateshead	3-3 HT 1-2	Aldershot
08/03/25 England National League	Aldershot	3-1 HT 1-1	Gateshead
16/11/24 England National League	Gateshead	2-2 HT 2-1	Aldershot
17/04/24 England National League	Gateshead	0-1 HT 0-0	Aldershot
16/09/23 England National League	Aldershot	1-1 HT 0-0	Gateshead

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	27
6	Yeovil	14	7	4	3	33	17	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	23
8	Halifax	14	6	3	5	24	17	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	20
12	Kidderminster	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	18
14	Aldershot	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
21	Boston Utd	14	3	3	8	17	27	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aldershot	Gateshead
Wealdstone	0-1 L	0-4 L
Altrincham	1-3 L	0-1 L
Solihull Moors	2-1 W	1-1 D
Halifax	1-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Aldershot (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aldershot

DWWDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Wealdstone England National League	0-0	0-1	10	7	L
10/10	Altrincham England National League	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
03/10	Carlisle England National League	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
29/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
26/09	Tamworth England National League	4-0	5-1	2	4	W
19/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
15/09	Yeovil England National League	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
05/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D

Gateshead

LLDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Halifax England National League	1-0	1-4	1	1	L
03/10	Worthing England National League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
29/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
26/09	Wealdstone England National League	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
19/09	Southend England National League	0-6	1-6	4	2	L
16/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
12/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
05/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
31/08	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	1-2	1	1	L
28/08	Sutton Utd England National League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aldershot vs Gateshead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aldershot win (60%). Probabilities: Aldershot 60%, draw 23%, Gateshead 17%.

How many goals are expected in Aldershot vs Gateshead?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Aldershot 1.96 · Gateshead 0.95), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Aldershot vs Gateshead?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.