Football · England National League · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Gateshead vs Barrow
Team pages: Gateshead · Barrow
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Gateshead0.95
Barrow1.91
1X2
Gateshead
Draw
Barrow
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Gateshead
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Barrow
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gateshead
2–2–2
Barrow
(6 last)
- Gateshead0-2Barrow
- Barrow1-2Gateshead
- Barrow1-1Gateshead
- Gateshead1-2Barrow
- Gateshead4-1Barrow
- Barrow0-0Gateshead
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gateshead 1390 · Barrow 1604
| Gateshead | Draw | Barrow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Market | 19% | 20% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barrow (rating 1390 vs 1604).
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gateshead | Barrow | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 2.6 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.3 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 2.5 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 5.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gateshead 2–2–2 Barrow
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/19 England National League | Gateshead | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Barrow |
| 25/09/18 England National League | Barrow | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Gateshead |
| 20/02/18 England National League | Barrow | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Gateshead |
| 21/11/17 England National League | Gateshead | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Barrow |
| 31/12/16 England National League | Gateshead | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Barrow |
| 26/12/16 England National League | Barrow | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gateshead |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 17 | 44 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 23 | 32 |
| 3 | Southend | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 27 | 29 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Yeovil | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | Worthing | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 25 | 28 |
| 7 | Altrincham | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 28 |
| 8 | Carlisle | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 26 |
| 9 | Barrow | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 25 |
| 10 | Halifax | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 21 | 24 |
| 12 | Woking | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 24 | 21 |
| 13 | Kidderminster | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 21 |
| 14 | Aldershot | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 21 |
| 15 | AFC Hornchurch | 16 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 26 | 21 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 24 | 19 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 25 | 19 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Boston Utd | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 32 | 17 |
| 21 | Hartlepool | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 27 | 15 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 40 | 13 |
| 23 | Scunthorpe | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 10 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 34 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gateshead | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| Aldershot | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Halifax | 1-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Worthing | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Wealdstone | 0-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Southend | 1-6 L | 4-2 W |
| Solihull Moors | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 5 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Barrow (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gateshead
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Aldershot England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 27/10 | Boston Utd England National League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Halifax England National League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/10 | Worthing England National League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/09 | Altrincham England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Southend England National League |
0-6 | 1-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/09 | Kidderminster England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Forest Green England National League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Solihull Moors England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | D |
Barrow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Eastleigh England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 27/10 | Halifax England National League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Tamworth England National League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/10 | Wealdstone England National League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 9 | W |
| 29/09 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 26/09 | Southend England National League |
0-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Aldershot England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 15/09 | Solihull Moors England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Worthing England National League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Sutton Utd England National League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gateshead vs Barrow?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Barrow win (60%). Probabilities: Gateshead 18%, draw 22%, Barrow 60%.
How many goals are expected in Gateshead vs Barrow?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Gateshead 0.95 · Barrow 1.91), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Gateshead vs Barrow?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.