Football · England National League · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Worthing vs Harrogate Town

Team pages: Worthing · Harrogate Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Worthing1.59

Harrogate Town1.72

1X2

35% 25% 41%

Worthing Draw Harrogate Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Worthing 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Harrogate Town 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worthing 1522 · Harrogate Town 1543

	Worthing	Draw	Harrogate Town
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	35%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worthing	Harrogate Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.80
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.34 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +5’	2.63	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	2.81	3.64	2.32
16:18 +5’	2.70▼	3.80▲	2.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	17	14	3	0	46	19	45
2	Harrogate Town	17	11	2	4	38	23	35
3	Southend	17	9	5	3	40	28	32
4	AFC Fylde	17	10	2	5	32	25	32
5	Yeovil	17	8	5	4	37	22	29
6	Carlisle	17	8	5	4	34	23	29
7	Worthing	17	8	5	4	33	26	29
8	Barrow	16	8	4	4	29	19	28
9	Altrincham	17	9	1	7	24	28	28
10	Halifax	17	7	4	6	29	21	25
11	Sutton Utd	17	7	3	7	20	23	24
12	AFC Hornchurch	17	8	0	9	20	27	24
13	Kidderminster	17	5	7	5	18	17	22
14	Woking	16	6	3	7	25	24	21
15	Aldershot	17	6	3	8	20	21	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
17	Wealdstone	17	5	4	8	24	30	19
18	Eastleigh	17	5	4	8	20	27	19
19	Boston Utd	17	5	3	9	21	31	18
20	Tamworth	16	5	2	9	26	34	17
21	Hartlepool	17	5	1	11	19	28	16
22	Solihull Moors	17	5	1	11	21	40	16
23	Scunthorpe	16	3	2	11	20	31	11
24	Gateshead	16	1	1	14	9	37	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worthing	Harrogate Town
Sutton Utd	0-3 L	3-1 W
Hartlepool	3-1 W	1-0 W
AFC Hornchurch	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Harrogate Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worthing

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
31/10	Sutton Utd England National League	0-3	0-3	3	8	L
27/10	Southend England National League	0-2	3-3	5	2	D
24/10	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/10	Solihull Moors England National League	3-0	5-0	4	1	W
03/10	Gateshead England National League	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
29/09	Yeovil England National League	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
26/09	Halifax England National League	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
19/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
15/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

Harrogate Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Altrincham England National League	0-0	4-0	9	4	W
31/10	Forest Green England National League	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
28/10	Carlisle England National League	0-1	0-3	9	7	L
24/10	Sutton Utd England National League	3-0	3-1	8	2	W
10/10	Woking England National League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
03/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
29/09	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/09	Eastleigh England National League	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
19/09	Boreham Wood England National League	1-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	1-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worthing vs Harrogate Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Harrogate Town win (41%). Probabilities: Worthing 35%, draw 25%, Harrogate Town 41%.

How many goals are expected in Worthing vs Harrogate Town?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Worthing 1.59 · Harrogate Town 1.72), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Worthing vs Harrogate Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.