Football · England National League · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Wealdstone vs AFC Hornchurch

Team pages: Wealdstone · AFC Hornchurch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Wealdstone1.46

AFC Hornchurch1.14

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Wealdstone Draw AFC Hornchurch

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Wealdstone 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLWLWD

AFC Hornchurch 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLLLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wealdstone 1489 · AFC Hornchurch 1492

	Wealdstone	Draw	AFC Hornchurch
Our model	43%	28%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wealdstone	AFC Hornchurch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	1.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.38 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +14’	2.05	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	2.05	3.60	3.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England National League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	17	14	3	0	46	19	45
2	Harrogate Town	17	11	2	4	38	23	35
3	Southend	17	9	5	3	40	28	32
4	AFC Fylde	17	10	2	5	32	25	32
5	Yeovil	17	8	5	4	37	22	29
6	Carlisle	17	8	5	4	34	23	29
7	Worthing	17	8	5	4	33	26	29
8	Barrow	16	8	4	4	29	19	28
9	Altrincham	17	9	1	7	24	28	28
10	Halifax	17	7	4	6	29	21	25
11	Sutton Utd	17	7	3	7	20	23	24
12	AFC Hornchurch	17	8	0	9	20	27	24
13	Kidderminster	17	5	7	5	18	17	22
14	Woking	16	6	3	7	25	24	21
15	Aldershot	17	6	3	8	20	21	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
17	Wealdstone	17	5	4	8	24	30	19
18	Eastleigh	17	5	4	8	20	27	19
19	Boston Utd	17	5	3	9	21	31	18
20	Tamworth	16	5	2	9	26	34	17
21	Hartlepool	17	5	1	11	19	28	16
22	Solihull Moors	17	5	1	11	21	40	16
23	Scunthorpe	16	3	2	11	20	31	11
24	Gateshead	16	1	1	14	9	37	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wealdstone	AFC Hornchurch
Hartlepool	1-1 D	1-2 L
Aldershot	1-0 W	2-1 W
Yeovil	0-6 L	1-2 L
Tamworth	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Hornchurch (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wealdstone

LLWDLLWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
31/10	Southend England National League	1-2	3-2	9	10	W
27/10	Solihull Moors England National League	0-2	2-3	9	2	L
24/10	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
10/10	Yeovil England National League	0-1	0-6	5	4	L
03/10	Barrow England National League	1-1	1-2	3	9	L
29/09	Forest Green England National League	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
26/09	Gateshead England National League	2-0	4-0	3	4	W
19/09	Tamworth England National League	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
15/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	0	2	L

AFC Hornchurch

LWLWLWLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Tamworth England National League	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
30/10	AFC Fylde England National League	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
27/10	Yeovil England National League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
24/10	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-2	12	4	L
10/10	Eastleigh England National League	1-0	2-0	11	6	W
03/10	Harrogate Town England National League	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
29/09	Aldershot England National League	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wealdstone vs AFC Hornchurch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wealdstone win (44%). Probabilities: Wealdstone 44%, draw 27%, AFC Hornchurch 29%.

How many goals are expected in Wealdstone vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Wealdstone 1.46 · AFC Hornchurch 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wealdstone vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.