Football · England National League · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Gateshead vs Hartlepool

Team pages: Gateshead · Hartlepool

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Gateshead1.15

Hartlepool1.78

1X2

24% 24% 52%

Gateshead Draw Hartlepool

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gateshead 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Hartlepool 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gateshead 2–4 Hartlepool (6 last)

Hartlepool2-1Gateshead
Gateshead0-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool3-2Gateshead
Gateshead4-3Hartlepool
Gateshead7-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool2-1Gateshead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gateshead 1385 · Hartlepool 1445

	Gateshead	Draw	Hartlepool
Our model	24%	26%	51%
Market	25%	23%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hartlepool (rating 1385 vs 1445).
H2H favours Hartlepool: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gateshead	Hartlepool
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.8	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.90

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.74
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.86 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +13’	3.70	3.90	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	3.74	3.86	1.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gateshead 2–0–4 Hartlepool

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/01/26 England National League	Hartlepool	2-1 HT 0-1	Gateshead
23/09/25 England National League	Gateshead	0-1 HT 0-0	Hartlepool
21/04/25 England National League	Hartlepool	3-2 HT 2-0	Gateshead
26/12/24 England National League	Gateshead	4-3 HT 2-1	Hartlepool
26/03/24 England National League	Gateshead	7-1 HT 1-1	Hartlepool
12/08/23 England National League	Hartlepool	2-1 HT 1-0	Gateshead

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	17	14	3	0	46	19	45
2	Harrogate Town	17	11	2	4	38	23	35
3	Southend	17	9	5	3	40	28	32
4	AFC Fylde	17	10	2	5	32	25	32
5	Yeovil	17	8	5	4	37	22	29
6	Carlisle	17	8	5	4	34	23	29
7	Worthing	17	8	5	4	33	26	29
8	Barrow	16	8	4	4	29	19	28
9	Altrincham	17	9	1	7	24	28	28
10	Halifax	17	7	4	6	29	21	25
11	Sutton Utd	17	7	3	7	20	23	24
12	AFC Hornchurch	17	8	0	9	20	27	24
13	Kidderminster	17	5	7	5	18	17	22
14	Woking	16	6	3	7	25	24	21
15	Aldershot	17	6	3	8	20	21	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
17	Wealdstone	17	5	4	8	24	30	19
18	Eastleigh	17	5	4	8	20	27	19
19	Boston Utd	17	5	3	9	21	31	18
20	Tamworth	16	5	2	9	26	34	17
21	Hartlepool	17	5	1	11	19	28	16
22	Solihull Moors	17	5	1	11	21	40	16
23	Scunthorpe	16	3	2	11	20	31	11
24	Gateshead	16	1	1	14	9	37	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gateshead	Hartlepool
Worthing	1-2 L	1-3 L
Altrincham	0-1 L	1-2 L
Wealdstone	0-4 L	1-1 D
Forest Green	0-4 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hartlepool (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gateshead

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Barrow England National League	0-1	0-3	7	5	L
31/10	Aldershot England National League	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
27/10	Boston Utd England National League	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
10/10	Halifax England National League	1-0	1-4	1	1	L
03/10	Worthing England National League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
29/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
26/09	Wealdstone England National League	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
19/09	Southend England National League	0-6	1-6	4	2	L
16/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
12/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-4	2	6	L

Hartlepool

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Wealdstone England National League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
31/10	Boreham Wood England National League	0-2	3-4	3	5	L
27/10	AFC Fylde England National League	1-0	1-3	3	1	L
24/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
10/10	Forest Green England National League	1-0	4-2	5	5	W
03/10	Tamworth England National League	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
29/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
26/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
19/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
16/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gateshead vs Hartlepool?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hartlepool win (52%). Probabilities: Gateshead 24%, draw 24%, Hartlepool 52%.

How many goals are expected in Gateshead vs Hartlepool?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Gateshead 1.15 · Hartlepool 1.78), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gateshead vs Hartlepool?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.