Football · England National League · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Harrogate Town vs Altrincham

Team pages: Harrogate Town · Altrincham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Harrogate Town1.97

Altrincham1.25

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Harrogate Town Draw Altrincham

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Harrogate Town 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Altrincham 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Harrogate Town 0–2–0 Altrincham (2 last)

Altrincham0-0Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town2-2Altrincham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harrogate Town 1537 · Altrincham 1559

	Harrogate Town	Draw	Altrincham
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harrogate Town	Altrincham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.8	3.7 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.83 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +15’	1.73	3.80	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:32 +421’	1.79	3.79	4.14
09:24 +3’	1.86▲	3.67▼	3.92▼
10:02 +21’	1.81▼	3.85▲	3.95▲
15:09 +19’	1.83▲	3.80▼	3.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harrogate Town 0–2–0 Altrincham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/02/17 England National League North	Altrincham	0-0 HT 0-0	Harrogate Town
13/08/16 England National League North	Harrogate Town	2-2 HT 1-1	Altrincham

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	16	14	2	0	44	17	44
2	Harrogate Town	16	10	2	4	34	23	32
3	Southend	16	8	5	3	38	27	29
4	AFC Fylde	16	9	2	5	30	24	29
5	Yeovil	16	8	4	4	35	20	28
6	Worthing	16	8	4	4	32	25	28
7	Altrincham	16	9	1	6	24	24	28
8	Carlisle	16	7	5	4	32	23	26
9	Barrow	15	7	4	4	26	19	25
10	Halifax	16	7	3	6	28	20	24
11	Sutton Utd	16	7	3	6	20	21	24
12	Woking	16	6	3	7	25	24	21
13	Kidderminster	16	5	6	5	17	16	21
14	Aldershot	16	6	3	7	19	19	21
15	AFC Hornchurch	16	7	0	9	18	26	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
17	Eastleigh	16	5	4	7	19	25	19
18	Wealdstone	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
19	Boston Utd	16	5	3	8	21	29	18
20	Tamworth	15	5	2	8	25	32	17
21	Hartlepool	16	5	0	11	18	27	15
22	Solihull Moors	16	4	1	11	19	40	13
23	Scunthorpe	15	3	1	11	19	30	10
24	Gateshead	15	1	1	13	9	34	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harrogate Town	Altrincham
Carlisle	0-3 L	2-4 L
Woking	1-0 W	1-5 L
AFC Hornchurch	3-0 W	3-0 W
Hartlepool	1-0 W	2-1 W
Boreham Wood	1-4 L	1-3 L
AFC Fylde	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Altrincham (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harrogate Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Forest Green England National League	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
28/10	Carlisle England National League	0-1	0-3	9	7	L
24/10	Sutton Utd England National League	3-0	3-1	8	2	W
10/10	Woking England National League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
03/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
29/09	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/09	Eastleigh England National League	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
19/09	Boreham Wood England National League	1-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
12/09	Tamworth England National League	2-1	3-1	10	7	W

Altrincham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Carlisle England National League	1-1	2-4	5	5	L
27/10	Kidderminster England National League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
24/10	Yeovil England National League	0-1	2-1	10	8	W
10/10	Aldershot England National League	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
03/10	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	1-3	2	7	L
29/09	Gateshead England National League	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
19/09	AFC Fylde England National League	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
16/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
12/09	Woking England National League	1-3	1-5	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harrogate Town vs Altrincham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harrogate Town win (53%). Probabilities: Harrogate Town 53%, draw 24%, Altrincham 23%.

How many goals are expected in Harrogate Town vs Altrincham?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Harrogate Town 1.97 · Altrincham 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Altrincham?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.