Football · England National League · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Hartlepool vs Wealdstone

Team pages: Hartlepool · Wealdstone

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Hartlepool1.84

Wealdstone1.35

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Hartlepool Draw Wealdstone

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Hartlepool 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWWLL

Wealdstone 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLLWLW

Head-to-head

Hartlepool 1–4–1 Wealdstone (6 last)

Wealdstone7-0Hartlepool
Hartlepool1-1Wealdstone
Wealdstone1-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool1-1Wealdstone
Wealdstone4-4Hartlepool
Hartlepool2-1Wealdstone

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hartlepool 1423 · Wealdstone 1505

	Hartlepool	Draw	Wealdstone
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wealdstone (rating 1423 vs 1505).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartlepool	Wealdstone
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.3	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.19 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.76
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +2’	1.91	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +422’	2.19	3.76	2.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartlepool 1–4–1 Wealdstone

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 England National League	Wealdstone	7-0 HT 5-0	Hartlepool
15/11/25 England National League	Hartlepool	1-1 HT 1-1	Wealdstone
18/01/25 England National League	Wealdstone	1-1 HT 0-1	Hartlepool
24/08/24 England National League	Hartlepool	1-1 HT 0-1	Wealdstone
23/12/23 England National League	Wealdstone	4-4 HT 3-2	Hartlepool
02/09/23 England National League	Hartlepool	2-1 HT 1-0	Wealdstone

Standings · England National League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	16	14	2	0	44	17	44
2	Harrogate Town	16	10	2	4	34	23	32
3	Southend	16	8	5	3	38	27	29
4	AFC Fylde	16	9	2	5	30	24	29
5	Yeovil	16	8	4	4	35	20	28
6	Worthing	16	8	4	4	32	25	28
7	Altrincham	16	9	1	6	24	24	28
8	Carlisle	16	7	5	4	32	23	26
9	Barrow	15	7	4	4	26	19	25
10	Halifax	16	7	3	6	28	20	24
11	Sutton Utd	16	7	3	6	20	21	24
12	Woking	16	6	3	7	25	24	21
13	Kidderminster	16	5	6	5	17	16	21
14	Aldershot	16	6	3	7	19	19	21
15	AFC Hornchurch	16	7	0	9	18	26	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
17	Eastleigh	16	5	4	7	19	25	19
18	Wealdstone	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
19	Boston Utd	16	5	3	8	21	29	18
20	Tamworth	15	5	2	8	25	32	17
21	Hartlepool	16	5	0	11	18	27	15
22	Solihull Moors	16	4	1	11	19	40	13
23	Scunthorpe	15	3	1	11	19	30	10
24	Gateshead	15	1	1	13	9	34	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartlepool	Wealdstone
Forest Green	4-2 W	1-1 D
Tamworth	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hartlepool (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hartlepool

LLLLLLWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Boreham Wood England National League	0-2	3-4	3	5	L
27/10	AFC Fylde England National League	1-0	1-3	3	1	L
24/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
10/10	Forest Green England National League	1-0	4-2	5	5	W
03/10	Tamworth England National League	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
29/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
26/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
19/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
16/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
11/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L

Wealdstone

WLLWDLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Southend England National League	1-2	3-2	9	10	W
27/10	Solihull Moors England National League	0-2	2-3	9	2	L
24/10	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
10/10	Yeovil England National League	0-1	0-6	5	4	L
03/10	Barrow England National League	1-1	1-2	3	9	L
29/09	Forest Green England National League	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
26/09	Gateshead England National League	2-0	4-0	3	4	W
19/09	Tamworth England National League	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
15/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
12/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	3-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartlepool vs Wealdstone?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hartlepool win (48%). Probabilities: Hartlepool 48%, draw 25%, Wealdstone 27%.

How many goals are expected in Hartlepool vs Wealdstone?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Hartlepool 1.84 · Wealdstone 1.35), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Wealdstone?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.