Football · England National League · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Southend vs Aldershot
Team pages: Southend · Aldershot
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.13Total
Southend2.85
Aldershot1.27
1X2
Southend
Draw
Aldershot
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Southend
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Aldershot
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southend
4–2–0
Aldershot
(6 last)
- Aldershot0-2Southend
- Southend3-0Aldershot
- Southend2-1Aldershot
- Aldershot0-0Southend
- Southend4-1Aldershot
- Aldershot1-1Southend
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southend 1525 · Aldershot 1435
| Southend | Draw | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southend (rating 1525 vs 1435).
- H2H favours Southend: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southend | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.9 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.6 | 2.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southend 4–2–0 Aldershot
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 England National League | Aldershot | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Southend |
| 04/10/25 England National League | Southend | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Aldershot |
| 18/02/25 England National League | Southend | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Aldershot |
| 23/10/24 England National League | Aldershot | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Southend |
| 24/02/24 England National League | Southend | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Aldershot |
| 26/09/23 England National League | Aldershot | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Southend |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 17 | 44 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 23 | 32 |
| 3 | Southend | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 27 | 29 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Yeovil | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | Worthing | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 25 | 28 |
| 7 | Altrincham | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 28 |
| 8 | Carlisle | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 26 |
| 9 | Barrow | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 25 |
| 10 | Halifax | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 21 | 24 |
| 12 | Woking | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 24 | 21 |
| 13 | Kidderminster | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 21 |
| 14 | Aldershot | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 21 |
| 15 | AFC Hornchurch | 16 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 26 | 21 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 24 | 19 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 25 | 19 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Boston Utd | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 32 | 17 |
| 21 | Hartlepool | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 27 | 15 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 40 | 13 |
| 23 | Scunthorpe | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 10 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 34 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Southend | Aldershot |
|---|---|---|
| Wealdstone | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Barrow | 2-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Gateshead | 6-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Tamworth | 3-1 W | 5-1 W |
| Carlisle | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southend
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Wealdstone England National League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 27/10 | Worthing England National League |
2-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 24/10 | Halifax England National League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 10/10 | Boston Utd England National League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/10 | AFC Fylde England National League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 30/09 | Eastleigh England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Barrow England National League |
0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | Gateshead England National League |
6-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 15/09 | Tamworth England National League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Carlisle England National League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
Aldershot
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Gateshead England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 28/10 | Sutton Utd England National League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/10 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | Altrincham England National League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Carlisle England National League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/09 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Tamworth England National League |
4-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Barrow England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 15/09 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Solihull Moors England National League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southend vs Aldershot?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Southend win (69%). Probabilities: Southend 69%, draw 18%, Aldershot 13%.
How many goals are expected in Southend vs Aldershot?
The model expects 4.13 goals (Southend 2.85 · Aldershot 1.27), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Southend vs Aldershot?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.