Football · England National League · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Solihull Moors vs Aldershot

Team pages: Solihull Moors · Aldershot

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Solihull Moors1.58

Aldershot1.42

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Solihull Moors Draw Aldershot

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Solihull Moors 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLLLLD

Aldershot 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLDWDW

Head-to-head

Solihull Moors 2–1–3 Aldershot (6 last)

Aldershot1-5Solihull Moors
Solihull Moors1-5Aldershot
Aldershot3-1Solihull Moors
Solihull Moors2-1Aldershot
Aldershot1-1Solihull Moors
Solihull Moors0-1Aldershot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Solihull Moors 1438 · Aldershot 1502

	Solihull Moors	Draw	Aldershot
Our model	40%	26%	33%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aldershot (rating 1438 vs 1502).
H2H favours Aldershot: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Solihull Moors	Aldershot
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.7	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.00 ★
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.93

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +19’	2.25	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +467’	1.99	3.94	3.20
04:26 +43’	2.10▲	4.00▲	2.93▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Solihull Moors 2–1–3 Aldershot

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 England National League	Aldershot	1-5 HT 0-4	Solihull Moors
23/08/25 England National League	Solihull Moors	1-5 HT 0-2	Aldershot
25/02/25 England National League	Aldershot	3-1 HT 3-0	Solihull Moors
10/12/24 England National League	Solihull Moors	2-1 HT 1-0	Aldershot
23/03/24 England National League	Aldershot	1-1 HT 0-0	Solihull Moors
07/10/23 England National League	Solihull Moors	0-1 HT 0-0	Aldershot

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	6	5	1	0	16	8	16
2	Harrogate Town	6	4	1	1	15	9	13
3	Southend	6	4	1	1	12	8	13
4	AFC Hornchurch	6	4	0	2	10	8	12
5	Sutton Utd	6	4	0	2	7	6	12
6	AFC Fylde	6	3	2	1	13	9	11
7	Yeovil	6	3	2	1	12	8	11
8	Kidderminster	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
9	Aldershot	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
10	Eastleigh	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
11	Hartlepool	6	3	0	3	5	4	9
12	Altrincham	6	3	0	3	7	8	9
13	Forest Green	6	3	0	3	7	10	9
14	Carlisle	6	2	2	2	13	10	8
15	Boston Utd	6	2	1	3	8	8	7
16	Worthing	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
17	Halifax	6	2	0	4	9	10	6
18	Barrow	6	1	2	3	8	9	5
19	Tamworth	6	1	2	3	12	16	5
20	Wealdstone	6	1	2	3	7	11	5
21	Scunthorpe	6	1	1	4	8	12	4
22	Gateshead	6	1	1	4	5	9	4
23	Woking	6	1	1	4	4	10	4
24	Solihull Moors	6	0	1	5	6	17	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Solihull Moors	Aldershot
Gateshead	1-1 D	0-1 L
Southend	1-3 L	0-2 L
Boston Utd	0-2 L	1-0 W
Harrogate Town	2-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aldershot (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Solihull Moors

DDLWLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Gateshead England National League	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/08	AFC Fylde England National League	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
28/08	Scunthorpe England National League	1-1	1-3	8	3	L
22/08	Southend England National League	1-2	1-3	6	5	L
15/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
08/08	Harrogate Town England National League	0-1	2-5	5	1	L
25/04	Yeovil England National League	4-1	4-1	2	4	W
18/04	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	0-3	4	3	L
14/04	Woking England National League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
11/04	Southend England National League	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Aldershot

LLLLWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
28/08	Harrogate Town England National League	3-0	3-1	7	4	W
22/08	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	1-1	2	9	D
15/08	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
08/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
25/04	Truro City England National League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
18/04	Brackley England National League	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
14/04	Southend England National League	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
11/04	Gateshead England National League	0-1	0-1	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Solihull Moors vs Aldershot?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Solihull Moors win (40%). Probabilities: Solihull Moors 40%, draw 26%, Aldershot 34%.

How many goals are expected in Solihull Moors vs Aldershot?

The model expects 3 goals (Solihull Moors 1.58 · Aldershot 1.42), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Solihull Moors vs Aldershot?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.