Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 30/08, 03:00

Prediction: Matagalpa FC vs Rancho Santana FC

Team pages: Matagalpa FC · Rancho Santana FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Matagalpa FC2.06

Rancho Santana FC1.19

1X2

56% 23% 20%

Matagalpa FC Draw Rancho Santana FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Matagalpa FC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Rancho Santana FC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Matagalpa FC 3–1–2 Rancho Santana FC (6 last)

Rancho Santana FC2-8Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC0-2Rancho Santana FC
Matagalpa FC1-4Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC1-2Matagalpa FC
Rancho Santana FC1-1Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC2-1Rancho Santana FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Matagalpa FC 1484 · Rancho Santana FC 1405

	Matagalpa FC	Draw	Rancho Santana FC
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matagalpa FC (rating 1484 vs 1405).
H2H favours Matagalpa FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Matagalpa FC	Rancho Santana FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	0.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.7	3.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.8	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.75

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:25 +3’	1.60	3.75	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Matagalpa FC 3–1–2 Rancho Santana FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	2-8 HT 0-3	Matagalpa FC
24/01/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Rancho Santana FC
27/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	1-4 HT 0-1	Rancho Santana FC
22/07/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Rancho Santana FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Matagalpa FC
23/03/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Matagalpa FC
26/02/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Rancho Santana FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	5	5	0	0	18	3	15
2	UNAN Managua	6	4	2	0	8	3	14
3	Diriangen	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
4	Real Esteli	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	5	3	1	1	7	7	10
6	CD Walter Ferretti	6	2	0	4	9	11	6
7	Matagalpa FC	6	2	0	4	3	12	6
8	San Marcos FC	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
9	Jalapa	6	1	0	5	2	8	3
10	Rancho Santana FC	6	0	0	6	4	12	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Matagalpa FC	Rancho Santana FC
Jalapa	1-0 W	0-4 L
San Marcos FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Managua FC	0-3 L	1-2 L
CD Walter Ferretti	1-4 L	1-3 L
HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Rancho Santana FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Matagalpa FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	1	12	W
10/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
26/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
19/07	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
23/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
02/11	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
26/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	2	5	W

Rancho Santana FC

LWLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-2	14	5	L
16/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
09/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
02/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
28/07	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
19/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
17/11	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
06/11	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
02/11	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	9	W
25/10	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matagalpa FC vs Rancho Santana FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Matagalpa FC win (56%). Probabilities: Matagalpa FC 56%, draw 23%, Rancho Santana FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Matagalpa FC vs Rancho Santana FC?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Matagalpa FC 2.06 · Rancho Santana FC 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Matagalpa FC vs Rancho Santana FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.