Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 17/08, 01:00

Prediction: UNAN Managua vs Jalapa

Team pages: UNAN Managua · Jalapa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

UNAN Managua1.58

Jalapa1.08

1X2

48% 27% 25%

UNAN Managua Draw Jalapa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

UNAN Managua 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWDWDW

Jalapa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLWLLL

Head-to-head

UNAN Managua 3–1–2 Jalapa (6 last)

UNAN Managua2-4Jalapa
Jalapa0-0UNAN Managua
Jalapa5-0UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua5-1Jalapa
UNAN Managua2-0Jalapa
UNAN Managua1-0Jalapa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UNAN Managua 1498 · Jalapa 1486

	UNAN Managua	Draw	Jalapa
Our model	48%	28%	25%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UNAN Managua: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UNAN Managua	Jalapa
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 3.4	2.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.6	5.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:19 +27’	2.10	3.40	3.00
21:13 +7’	1.85▼	3.50▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UNAN Managua 3–1–2 Jalapa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	2-4 HT 1-3	Jalapa
09/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	0-0 HT 0-0	UNAN Managua
23/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	5-0 HT 3-0	UNAN Managua
10/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	UNAN Managua	5-1 HT 2-0	Jalapa
05/03/25 Nicaragua Cup	UNAN Managua	2-0 HT 1-0	Jalapa
02/03/25 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	1-0 HT 0-0	Jalapa

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	4	4	0	0	12	2	12
2	Real Esteli	4	3	1	0	8	2	10
3	HYH Export Sebaco FC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
4	Diriangen	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
5	UNAN Managua	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
6	CD Walter Ferretti	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
7	Jalapa	4	1	0	3	1	5	3
8	San Marcos FC	4	0	2	2	3	7	2
9	Rancho Santana FC	4	0	0	4	2	7	0
10	Matagalpa FC	4	0	0	4	1	12	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UNAN Managua	Jalapa
Rancho Santana FC	2-0 W	4-3 W
Real Esteli	1-1 D	0-1 L
HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-3 L	0-1 L
Managua FC	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: UNAN Managua (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

UNAN Managua

LLDLWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	12	D
28/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
18/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
24/05	Matiguas FC Nicaragua Liga Primera Play-Offs	0-1	2-1	3	10	W
17/05	Matiguas FC Nicaragua Liga Primera Play-Offs	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-3	3	5	L
19/04	Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/04	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-1	0-2	7	7	L
13/04	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

Jalapa

WDWDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
31/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
26/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
19/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Cup	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
07/05	Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura	1-2	1-3	5	8	L
03/05	Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
30/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	3-0	4	3	W
26/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
20/04	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-2	4-3	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UNAN Managua vs Jalapa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UNAN Managua win (48%). Probabilities: UNAN Managua 48%, draw 27%, Jalapa 25%.

How many goals are expected in UNAN Managua vs Jalapa?

The model expects 2.65 goals (UNAN Managua 1.58 · Jalapa 1.08), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UNAN Managua vs Jalapa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.