Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 23/08, 01:00

Prediction: Managua FC vs HYH Export Sebaco FC

Team pages: Managua FC · HYH Export Sebaco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Managua FC1.91

HYH Export Sebaco FC1.11

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Managua FC Draw HYH Export Sebaco FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Managua FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLWWWW

HYH Export Sebaco FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Managua FC 5–1 HYH Export Sebaco FC (6 last)

HYH Export Sebaco FC0-2Managua FC
Managua FC1-0HYH Export Sebaco FC
Managua FC4-2HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC1-0Managua FC
Managua FC1-0HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC0-2Managua FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Managua FC 1625 · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1539

	Managua FC	Draw	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Managua FC (rating 1625 vs 1539).
H2H favours Managua FC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Managua FC	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.6	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.1	1 / 1.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.63
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.72
2	4.50 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.50 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:00 +2’	1.57	3.75	4.50
05:49 +5’	1.65▲	3.60▼	4.10▼
23:00 +10’	1.61▼	3.60	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:11 +1’	1.58	3.83	4.71
17:17 +15’	1.63▲	3.72▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Managua FC 5–0–1 HYH Export Sebaco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Managua FC
26/01/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	1-0 HT 0-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
29/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	4-2 HT 1-1	HYH Export Sebaco FC
22/07/25 Nicaragua Apertura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Managua FC
09/03/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	1-0 HT 1-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
23/01/25 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Managua FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	4	4	0	0	12	2	12
2	UNAN Managua	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
3	Real Esteli	4	3	1	0	8	2	10
4	HYH Export Sebaco FC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
5	Diriangen	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
6	CD Walter Ferretti	5	2	0	3	9	10	6
7	Jalapa	5	1	0	4	2	7	3
8	Matagalpa FC	5	1	0	4	2	12	3
9	San Marcos FC	5	0	2	3	3	8	2
10	Rancho Santana FC	5	0	0	5	3	10	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Managua FC	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Matagalpa FC	3-0 W	3-0 W
San Marcos FC	4-1 W	1-1 D
Jalapa	3-0 W	1-0 W
Rancho Santana FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Diriangen	0-1 L	0-5 L
UNAN Managua	3-0 W	3-1 W
Real Esteli	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Managua FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Managua FC

WLWWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
01/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	7	8	W
19/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
21/12	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	4	12	L
23/11	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/11	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
02/11	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
27/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	10	L
23/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	2-1	–	–	W

HYH Export Sebaco FC

DDWLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	11	W
02/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
19/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/11	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-3	0	8	L
03/11	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	0	1	L
25/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/10	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Managua FC vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Managua FC win (55%). Probabilities: Managua FC 55%, draw 24%, HYH Export Sebaco FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Managua FC vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Managua FC 1.91 · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1.11), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Managua FC vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.