Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 23/08, 23:00

Prediction: Jalapa vs Matagalpa FC

Team pages: Jalapa · Matagalpa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Jalapa1.75

Matagalpa FC1.25

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Jalapa Draw Matagalpa FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Jalapa 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLLLL

Matagalpa FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Jalapa 2–1–3 Matagalpa FC (6 last)

Matagalpa FC3-1Jalapa
Jalapa1-1Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC1-3Jalapa
Matagalpa FC3-0Jalapa
Jalapa0-2Matagalpa FC
Jalapa3-0Matagalpa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jalapa 1477 · Matagalpa FC 1467

	Jalapa	Draw	Matagalpa FC
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	48%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Matagalpa FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jalapa	Matagalpa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	4.7 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.25 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.67 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:42 +3’	2.15	3.25	2.90
06:10 +6’	1.90▼	3.40▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:29 +1’	1.81	3.42	3.84
00:22	1.87▲	3.29▼	3.67▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jalapa 2–1–3 Matagalpa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Nicaragua Cup	Matagalpa FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Jalapa
12/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	1-1 HT 0-1	Matagalpa FC
11/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	1-3 HT 1-1	Jalapa
26/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Jalapa
16/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	0-2 HT 0-2	Matagalpa FC
02/05/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	3-0 HT 1-0	Matagalpa FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	4	4	0	0	12	2	12
2	UNAN Managua	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
3	Real Esteli	4	3	1	0	8	2	10
4	HYH Export Sebaco FC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
5	Diriangen	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
6	CD Walter Ferretti	5	2	0	3	9	10	6
7	Jalapa	5	1	0	4	2	7	3
8	Matagalpa FC	5	1	0	4	2	12	3
9	San Marcos FC	5	0	2	3	3	8	2
10	Rancho Santana FC	5	0	0	5	3	10	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jalapa	Matagalpa FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-1 L	0-3 L
Real Esteli	0-1 L	0-2 L
Managua FC	0-3 L	0-3 L
CD Walter Ferretti	1-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Jalapa (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jalapa

WLWWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
09/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
31/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
26/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
19/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
06/11	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
01/11	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
26/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	9	5	L
23/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	3-0	5-0	3	5	W

Matagalpa FC

DWLWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	1	12	W
10/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
26/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
19/07	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
23/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
02/11	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
26/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
23/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-2	2	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jalapa vs Matagalpa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jalapa win (48%). Probabilities: Jalapa 48%, draw 26%, Matagalpa FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Jalapa vs Matagalpa FC?

The model expects 3 goals (Jalapa 1.75 · Matagalpa FC 1.25), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jalapa vs Matagalpa FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.