Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 30/08, 02:00

Prediction: Diriangen vs Jalapa

Team pages: Diriangen · Jalapa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Diriangen1.9

Jalapa0.64

1X2

68% 21% 12%

Diriangen Draw Jalapa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Diriangen 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWDWDWW

Jalapa 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Diriangen 3–2–1 Jalapa (6 last)

Jalapa2-1Diriangen
Diriangen2-1Jalapa
Diriangen0-0Jalapa
Jalapa2-3Diriangen
Jalapa2-2Diriangen
Diriangen4-1Jalapa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Diriangen 1546 · Jalapa 1451

	Diriangen	Draw	Jalapa
Our model	67%	23%	11%
Market	69%	19%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diriangen (rating 1546 vs 1451).
H2H favours Diriangen: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Diriangen	Jalapa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.5	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.75

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:21 +4’	1.30	4.75	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Diriangen 3–2–1 Jalapa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	2-1 HT 0-1	Diriangen
24/01/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Diriangen	2-1 HT 0-0	Jalapa
28/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Diriangen	0-0 HT 0-0	Jalapa
24/07/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	2-3 HT 2-1	Diriangen
13/04/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	2-2 HT 1-1	Diriangen
16/02/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Diriangen	4-1 HT 1-1	Jalapa

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	5	5	0	0	18	3	15
2	UNAN Managua	6	4	2	0	8	3	14
3	Diriangen	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
4	Real Esteli	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	5	3	1	1	7	7	10
6	CD Walter Ferretti	6	2	0	4	9	11	6
7	Matagalpa FC	6	2	0	4	3	12	6
8	San Marcos FC	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
9	Jalapa	6	1	0	5	2	8	3
10	Rancho Santana FC	6	0	0	6	4	12	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Diriangen	Jalapa
Real Esteli	2-0 W	0-1 L
Rancho Santana FC	2-1 W	4-0 W
UNAN Managua	1-1 D	1-2 L
CD Walter Ferretti	3-1 W	1-0 W
Managua FC	1-0 W	0-3 L
Real Madriz FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
HYH Export Sebaco FC	5-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Diriangen (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Diriangen

DWWDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
01/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	12	D
24/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
18/07	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
21/12	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	5	12	W
23/11	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
07/11	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
03/11	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
26/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-0	2	6	D

Jalapa

LWWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
17/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
09/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
31/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
26/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
19/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
06/11	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
01/11	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
26/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Diriangen vs Jalapa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Diriangen win (68%). Probabilities: Diriangen 68%, draw 21%, Jalapa 12%.

How many goals are expected in Diriangen vs Jalapa?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Diriangen 1.9 · Jalapa 0.64), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Diriangen vs Jalapa?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.