Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 30/08, 23:00

Prediction: HYH Export Sebaco FC vs Real Esteli

Team pages: HYH Export Sebaco FC · Real Esteli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

HYH Export Sebaco FC1.11

Real Esteli1.57

1X2

26% 27% 47%

HYH Export Sebaco FC Draw Real Esteli

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

HYH Export Sebaco FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWDWWL

Real Esteli 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLDDWWWL

Head-to-head

HYH Export Sebaco FC 1–5 Real Esteli (6 last)

HYH Export Sebaco FC2-3Real Esteli
Real Esteli3-2HYH Export Sebaco FC
Real Esteli3-0HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC3-1Real Esteli
Real Esteli1-0HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC1-3Real Esteli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1537 · Real Esteli 1540

	HYH Export Sebaco FC	Draw	Real Esteli
Our model	26%	28%	47%
Market	26%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Esteli: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HYH Export Sebaco FC	Real Esteli
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 1.7	3.1 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.40

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:34 +13’	3.40	3.40	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1–0–5 Real Esteli

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	2-3 HT 2-1	Real Esteli
19/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	3-2 HT 2-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
07/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Real Esteli	3-0 HT 1-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
17/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Real Esteli
11/05/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	1-0 HT 0-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
08/05/25 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-3 HT 1-1	Real Esteli

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	5	5	0	0	18	3	15
2	UNAN Managua	6	4	2	0	8	3	14
3	Diriangen	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
4	Real Esteli	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	5	3	1	1	7	7	10
6	CD Walter Ferretti	6	2	0	4	9	11	6
7	Matagalpa FC	6	2	0	4	3	12	6
8	San Marcos FC	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
9	Jalapa	6	1	0	5	2	8	3
10	Rancho Santana FC	6	0	0	6	4	12	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HYH Export Sebaco FC	Real Esteli
Jalapa	1-0 W	1-0 W
Matagalpa FC	3-0 W	2-0 W
UNAN Managua	3-1 W	1-1 D
Diriangen	0-5 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HYH Export Sebaco FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HYH Export Sebaco FC

DWLLWWDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-5	1-6	2	4	L
09/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	11	W
02/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
19/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/11	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-3	0	8	L
03/11	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	0	1	L
25/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/10	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Real Esteli

DWWLDDWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
08/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	5	3	W
31/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
18/07	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
28/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
23/11	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
07/11	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-0	7	8	W
03/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
26/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-0	12	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs Real Esteli?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Esteli win (47%). Probabilities: HYH Export Sebaco FC 26%, draw 27%, Real Esteli 47%.

How many goals are expected in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs Real Esteli?

The model expects 2.68 goals (HYH Export Sebaco FC 1.11 · Real Esteli 1.57), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs Real Esteli?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.