Football · England National League · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hartlepool vs AFC Hornchurch

Team pages: Hartlepool · AFC Hornchurch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Hartlepool1.36

AFC Hornchurch1.07

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Hartlepool Draw AFC Hornchurch

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hartlepool 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLLW

AFC Hornchurch 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hartlepool 1394 · AFC Hornchurch 1529

	Hartlepool	Draw	AFC Hornchurch
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	44%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Hornchurch (rating 1394 vs 1529).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartlepool	AFC Hornchurch
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.28 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.58
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +8’	2.10	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +490’	2.28	3.58	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	13	11	2	0	34	13	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	9	1	3	29	17	28
3	Southend	13	8	3	2	31	19	27
4	Yeovil	13	7	4	2	32	15	25
5	Worthing	13	7	3	3	27	18	24
6	Altrincham	13	8	0	5	20	19	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
8	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	7	0	6	15	19	21
10	Halifax	13	6	2	5	22	15	20
11	Kidderminster	13	5	5	3	15	12	20
12	Aldershot	13	5	3	5	18	16	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	5	3	5	14	18	18
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23	20	17
15	Woking	13	4	3	6	20	20	15
16	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
17	Eastleigh	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
18	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
19	Wealdstone	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12	19	12
21	Boston Utd	13	3	3	7	15	23	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	3	1	8	15	21	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	2	1	10	13	35	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartlepool	AFC Hornchurch
Forest Green	4-2 W	0-1 L
Harrogate Town	0-1 L	0-3 L
Scunthorpe	1-4 L	1-0 W
Worthing	1-3 L	0-1 L
Altrincham	1-2 L	0-3 L
Woking	1-0 W	1-0 W
Halifax	0-1 L	0-3 L
Eastleigh	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Hartlepool (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hartlepool

LLWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Forest Green England National League	1-0	4-2	5	5	W
03/10	Tamworth England National League	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
29/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
26/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
19/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
16/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
11/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
05/09	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
01/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L

AFC Hornchurch

WWLLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Eastleigh England National League	1-0	2-0	11	6	W
03/10	Harrogate Town England National League	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
29/09	Aldershot England National League	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/09	Halifax England National League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
05/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
31/08	Boston Utd England National League	1-2	3-2	5	2	W
28/08	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartlepool vs AFC Hornchurch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hartlepool win (43%). Probabilities: Hartlepool 43%, draw 28%, AFC Hornchurch 29%.

How many goals are expected in Hartlepool vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Hartlepool 1.36 · AFC Hornchurch 1.07), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.