Football · England National League · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: AFC Hornchurch vs Yeovil

Team pages: AFC Hornchurch · Yeovil

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

AFC Hornchurch1.42

Yeovil1.59

1X2

33% 27% 40%

AFC Hornchurch Draw Yeovil

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Hornchurch 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Yeovil 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Hornchurch 1498 · Yeovil 1554

	AFC Hornchurch	Draw	Yeovil
Our model	33%	26%	40%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yeovil (rating 1498 vs 1554).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Hornchurch	Yeovil
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	2.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6	3.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.82
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.43
2	2.10 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.39 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:38 +12’	3.00	3.40	2.10
16:11 +17’	2.75▼	3.40	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:14 +156’	2.85	3.53	2.32
03:16 +6’	3.10▲	3.48▼	2.19▼
14:07 +15’	2.82▼	3.43▼	2.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	27
6	Yeovil	14	7	4	3	33	17	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	23
8	Halifax	14	6	3	5	24	17	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	20
12	Kidderminster	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	18
14	Aldershot	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
21	Boston Utd	14	3	3	8	17	27	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Hornchurch	Yeovil
Aldershot	2-1 W	1-1 D
Altrincham	0-3 L	1-2 L
Worthing	0-1 L	1-1 D
Boston Utd	3-2 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Yeovil (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Hornchurch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-2	12	4	L
10/10	Eastleigh England National League	1-0	2-0	11	6	W
03/10	Harrogate Town England National League	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
29/09	Aldershot England National League	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/09	Halifax England National League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
05/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
31/08	Boston Utd England National League	1-2	3-2	5	2	W

Yeovil

WLLDWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Altrincham England National League	1-0	1-2	6	8	L
10/10	Wealdstone England National League	1-0	6-0	3	4	W
03/10	Boston Utd England National League	4-0	6-0	6	5	W
29/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
26/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/09	Solihull Moors England National League	1-0	4-1	7	4	W
15/09	Aldershot England National League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
05/09	Southend England National League	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
31/08	Tamworth England National League	1-1	3-2	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Hornchurch vs Yeovil?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Yeovil win (40%). Probabilities: AFC Hornchurch 33%, draw 27%, Yeovil 40%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Hornchurch vs Yeovil?

The model expects 3.01 goals (AFC Hornchurch 1.42 · Yeovil 1.59), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Hornchurch vs Yeovil?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.