Football · England National League · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Worthing vs Southend

Team pages: Worthing · Southend

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Worthing1.73

Southend1.89

1X2

35% 24% 41%

Worthing Draw Southend

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Worthing 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWDWWW

Southend 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLDWWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worthing 1522 · Southend 1530

	Worthing	Draw	Southend
Our model	35%	24%	42%
Market	35%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worthing	Southend
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.2	2.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.75

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.63
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.06 ★
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.27

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:38 +12’	2.63	3.75	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +6’	2.52	4.06	2.36
00:40 +49’	2.56▲	4.08▲	2.32▼
03:07 +16’	2.63▲	4.06▼	2.27▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	27
6	Yeovil	14	7	4	3	33	17	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	23
8	Halifax	14	6	3	5	24	17	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	20
12	Kidderminster	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	18
14	Aldershot	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
21	Boston Utd	14	3	3	8	17	27	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worthing	Southend
Gateshead	2-1 W	6-1 W
Yeovil	1-1 D	3-2 W
Halifax	2-1 W	2-2 D
Barrow	2-2 D	2-4 L
AFC Fylde	2-2 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Southend (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worthing

LDDWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/10	Solihull Moors England National League	3-0	5-0	4	1	W
03/10	Gateshead England National League	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
29/09	Yeovil England National League	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
26/09	Halifax England National League	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
19/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
15/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/09	Barrow England National League	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
05/09	AFC Fylde England National League	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
31/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	2-3	6	4	L

Southend

DWDWWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Halifax England National League	1-1	2-2	5	1	D
10/10	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
03/10	AFC Fylde England National League	2-1	3-1	8	2	W
30/09	Eastleigh England National League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	2-4	5	6	L
19/09	Gateshead England National League	6-0	6-1	3	2	W
15/09	Tamworth England National League	0-0	3-1	9	1	W
12/09	Carlisle England National League	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
05/09	Yeovil England National League	0-1	3-2	9	4	W
31/08	Woking England National League	1-0	1-1	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worthing vs Southend?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Southend win (41%). Probabilities: Worthing 35%, draw 24%, Southend 41%.

How many goals are expected in Worthing vs Southend?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Worthing 1.73 · Southend 1.89), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Worthing vs Southend?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.