Football · England National League · 30/10, 20:45

Prediction: AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch

Team pages: AFC Fylde · AFC Hornchurch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

AFC Fylde1.78

AFC Hornchurch1.15

1X2

52% 25% 24%

AFC Fylde Draw AFC Hornchurch

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Fylde 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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AFC Hornchurch 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Fylde 1536 · AFC Hornchurch 1498

	AFC Fylde	Draw	AFC Hornchurch
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Fylde	AFC Hornchurch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.9	1.9 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.80

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:09 +15’	1.75	3.80	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	38	13	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	32	18	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	33	21	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	29	19	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	22	20	27
6	Yeovil	14	7	4	3	33	17	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	24	22	23
8	Halifax	14	6	3	5	24	17	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	16	21	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	25	21	20
12	Kidderminster	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	23	22	18
14	Aldershot	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	18	22	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	15	21	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	14	20	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
21	Boston Utd	14	3	3	8	17	27	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	17	24	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	14	37	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Fylde	AFC Hornchurch
Scunthorpe	2-0 W	1-0 W
Boston Utd	1-0 W	3-2 W
Altrincham	1-2 L	0-3 L
Harrogate Town	2-1 W	0-3 L
Worthing	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Fylde (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Fylde

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Boreham Wood England National League	0-3	0-4	1	3	L
10/10	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
03/10	Southend England National League	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
29/09	Carlisle England National League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
26/09	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-0	14	5	W
19/09	Altrincham England National League	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
15/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Yeovil England National League	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
05/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
31/08	Solihull Moors England National League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W

AFC Hornchurch

WLLLWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-2	12	4	L
10/10	Eastleigh England National League	1-0	2-0	11	6	W
03/10	Harrogate Town England National League	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
29/09	Aldershot England National League	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/09	Halifax England National League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
05/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
31/08	Boston Utd England National League	1-2	3-2	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Fylde win (52%). Probabilities: AFC Fylde 52%, draw 25%, AFC Hornchurch 24%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model expects 2.93 goals (AFC Fylde 1.78 · AFC Hornchurch 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.