Football · England National League · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Hornchurch vs Tamworth

Team pages: AFC Hornchurch · Tamworth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

AFC Hornchurch1.36

Tamworth1.3

1X2

38% 27% 35%

AFC Hornchurch Draw Tamworth

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Hornchurch 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Tamworth 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Hornchurch 1476 · Tamworth 1456

	AFC Hornchurch	Draw	Tamworth
Our model	37%	28%	34%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Hornchurch	Tamworth
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.4	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.63
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.82 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +8’	2.38	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:32 +420’	2.32	3.63	2.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	16	14	2	0	44	17	44
2	Harrogate Town	16	10	2	4	34	23	32
3	Southend	16	8	5	3	38	27	29
4	AFC Fylde	16	9	2	5	30	24	29
5	Yeovil	16	8	4	4	35	20	28
6	Worthing	16	8	4	4	32	25	28
7	Altrincham	16	9	1	6	24	24	28
8	Carlisle	16	7	5	4	32	23	26
9	Barrow	15	7	4	4	26	19	25
10	Halifax	16	7	3	6	28	20	24
11	Sutton Utd	16	7	3	6	20	21	24
12	Woking	16	6	3	7	25	24	21
13	Kidderminster	16	5	6	5	17	16	21
14	Aldershot	16	6	3	7	19	19	21
15	AFC Hornchurch	16	7	0	9	18	26	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
17	Eastleigh	16	5	4	7	19	25	19
18	Wealdstone	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
19	Boston Utd	16	5	3	8	21	29	18
20	Tamworth	15	5	2	8	25	32	17
21	Hartlepool	16	5	0	11	18	27	15
22	Solihull Moors	16	4	1	11	19	40	13
23	Scunthorpe	15	3	1	11	19	30	10
24	Gateshead	15	1	1	13	9	34	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Hornchurch	Tamworth
Hartlepool	1-2 L	1-0 W
Harrogate Town	0-3 L	1-3 L
Aldershot	2-1 W	1-5 L
Scunthorpe	1-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tamworth (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Hornchurch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	AFC Fylde England National League	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
27/10	Yeovil England National League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
24/10	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-2	12	4	L
10/10	Eastleigh England National League	1-0	2-0	11	6	W
03/10	Harrogate Town England National League	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
29/09	Aldershot England National League	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/09	Halifax England National League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L

Tamworth

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Woking England National League	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
27/10	Scunthorpe England National League	3-1	4-1	2	3	W
10/10	Barrow England National League	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
03/10	Hartlepool England National League	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
30/09	Sutton Utd England National League	0-0	2-0	9	5	W
26/09	Aldershot England National League	0-4	1-5	7	4	L
19/09	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
15/09	Southend England National League	0-0	1-3	2	1	L
12/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
05/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Hornchurch vs Tamworth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Hornchurch win (38%). Probabilities: AFC Hornchurch 38%, draw 27%, Tamworth 35%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Hornchurch vs Tamworth?

The model expects 2.67 goals (AFC Hornchurch 1.36 · Tamworth 1.3), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Hornchurch vs Tamworth?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.